UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Orel Grinfeld
Goals
57%
24%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.730.902.63safe0.77–2.700.04–1.760.81–4.46safer0.51–2.960.00–2.010.31–4.96actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.113.038.14safe3.26–6.971.32–4.734.58–11.70safer2.76–7.470.85–5.203.61–12.67actual5.005.0010.00
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction14.099.7423.83safe10.39–17.806.36–13.1216.75–30.91safer9.36–18.835.43–14.0514.79–32.88actual10.0012.0022.00
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction8.745.9414.68safe6.22–11.253.64–8.249.86–19.49safer5.36–12.122.84–9.048.20–21.15actual6.003.009.00
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.822.826.64safe2.24–5.401.41–4.243.64–9.64safer1.70–5.940.92–4.722.62–10.66actual3.004.007.00
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.513.969.46safe3.30–7.711.98–5.935.28–13.65safer2.71–8.311.44–6.474.15–14.78actual9.001.0010.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction59.1440.32safe52.83–65.4634.01–46.64safer51.23–67.0632.41–48.24actual62.0038.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction549375924safe483–614311–440794–1054safer466–631293–457759–1089actual577355932
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction85.2578.89safe81.03–89.4674.38–83.40safer79.73–90.7773.05–84.73
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8313.5024.33safe7.98–13.6910.56–16.4518.53–30.14safer7.09–14.589.64–17.3616.73–31.94actual13.0014.0027.00
Offsides
56%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.223.25safe0.82–3.240.06–2.380.88–5.63safer0.48–3.590.00–2.720.21–6.30actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.504.14safe0.58–2.691.38–3.621.96–6.31safer0.31–2.971.09–3.911.40–6.87actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.360.00–0.450.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
15%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.143.395.53safe0.72–3.551.84–4.952.56–8.50safer0.33–3.941.41–5.381.74–9.32actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.77–2.70 0.51–2.96 | 0.00 | 0.90 0.04–1.76 0.00–2.01 | 1.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.31–4.96 | 1.00 | 57% 24% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.26–6.97 2.76–7.47 | 5.00 | 3.03 1.32–4.73 0.85–5.20 | 5.00 | 8.14 4.58–11.70 3.61–12.67 | 10.00 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 14.09 10.39–17.80 9.36–18.83 | 10.00 | 9.74 6.36–13.12 5.43–14.05 | 12.00 | 23.83 16.75–30.91 14.79–32.88 | 22.00 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 8.74 6.22–11.25 5.36–12.12 | 6.00 | 5.94 3.64–8.24 2.84–9.04 | 3.00 | 14.68 9.86–19.49 8.20–21.15 | 9.00 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 2.24–5.40 1.70–5.94 | 3.00 | 2.82 1.41–4.24 0.92–4.72 | 4.00 | 6.64 3.64–9.64 2.62–10.66 | 7.00 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.51 3.30–7.71 2.71–8.31 | 9.00 | 3.96 1.98–5.93 1.44–6.47 | 1.00 | 9.46 5.28–13.65 4.15–14.78 | 10.00 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 59.14 52.83–65.46 51.23–67.06 | 62.00 | 40.32 34.01–46.64 32.41–48.24 | 38.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 549 483–614 466–631 | 577 | 375 311–440 293–457 | 355 | 924 794–1054 759–1089 | 932 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.25 81.03–89.46 79.73–90.77 | — | 78.89 74.38–83.40 73.05–84.73 | — | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 10.83 7.98–13.69 7.09–14.58 | 13.00 | 13.50 10.56–16.45 9.64–17.36 | 14.00 | 24.33 18.53–30.14 16.73–31.94 | 27.00 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.82–3.24 0.48–3.59 | 0.00 | 1.22 0.06–2.38 0.00–2.72 | 3.00 | 3.25 0.88–5.63 0.21–6.30 | 3.00 | 56% 21% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.58–2.69 0.31–2.97 | 1.00 | 2.50 1.38–3.62 1.09–3.91 | 3.00 | 4.14 1.96–6.31 1.40–6.87 | 4.00 | 25% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.14 0.72–3.55 0.33–3.94 | 4.00 | 3.39 1.84–4.95 1.41–5.38 | 4.00 | 5.53 2.56–8.50 1.74–9.32 | 8.00 | 22% 15% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+