Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Felix Zwayer
Goals
27%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.033.46safe0.47–2.391.17–2.891.64–5.28safer0.21–2.650.93–3.141.13–5.79actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.625.309.92safe2.76–6.483.59–7.016.36–13.48safer2.27–6.983.13–7.485.39–14.45actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2313.4427.67safe10.53–17.9310.06–16.8220.59–34.75safer9.50–18.969.13–17.7518.63–36.71actual12.0012.0024.00
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction8.329.6117.93safe5.81–10.847.31–11.9113.12–22.75safer4.94–11.706.51–12.7111.46–24.41actual10.007.0017.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.497.46safe2.39–5.562.07–4.904.47–10.46safer1.86–6.101.59–5.393.45–11.48actual4.002.006.00
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.909.78safe2.67–7.082.92–6.885.59–13.96safer2.08–7.682.39–7.424.46–15.09actual5.003.008.00
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction50.6348.49safe44.32–56.9542.17–54.81safer42.72–58.5540.57–56.40actual36.0064.00
Passes
52%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction454449903safe389–519384–513773–1033safer371–537366–531738–1068actual3636541017
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction82.4485.99safe78.22–86.6581.48–90.49safer76.92–87.9580.15–91.82
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7812.3424.12safe8.92–14.649.40–15.2918.32–29.92safer8.04–15.528.48–16.2116.52–31.73actual14.0015.0029.00
Offsides
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.214.02safe0.60–3.021.05–3.371.65–6.39safer0.25–3.360.72–3.710.97–7.07actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.342.384.72safe1.28–3.391.26–3.502.54–6.89safer1.01–3.670.97–3.791.98–7.46actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.386.66safe1.86–4.691.83–4.943.69–9.63safer1.47–5.081.40–5.372.87–10.45actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 0.00 | 2.03 1.17–2.89 0.93–3.14 | 1.00 | 3.46 1.64–5.28 1.13–5.79 | 1.00 | 27% 21% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.62 2.76–6.48 2.27–6.98 | 3.00 | 5.30 3.59–7.01 3.13–7.48 | 4.00 | 9.92 6.36–13.48 5.39–14.45 | 7.00 | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 14.23 10.53–17.93 9.50–18.96 | 12.00 | 13.44 10.06–16.82 9.13–17.75 | 12.00 | 27.67 20.59–34.75 18.63–36.71 | 24.00 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.81–10.84 4.94–11.70 | 10.00 | 9.61 7.31–11.91 6.51–12.71 | 7.00 | 17.93 13.12–22.75 11.46–24.41 | 17.00 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.39–5.56 1.86–6.10 | 4.00 | 3.49 2.07–4.90 1.59–5.39 | 2.00 | 7.46 4.47–10.46 3.45–11.48 | 6.00 | 50% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.08 2.08–7.68 | 5.00 | 4.90 2.92–6.88 2.39–7.42 | 3.00 | 9.78 5.59–13.96 4.46–15.09 | 8.00 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 50.63 44.32–56.95 42.72–58.55 | 36.00 | 48.49 42.17–54.81 40.57–56.40 | 64.00 | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 454 389–519 371–537 | 363 | 449 384–513 366–531 | 654 | 903 773–1033 738–1068 | 1017 | 52% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.44 78.22–86.65 76.92–87.95 | — | 85.99 81.48–90.49 80.15–91.82 | — | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.92–14.64 8.04–15.52 | 14.00 | 12.34 9.40–15.29 8.48–16.21 | 15.00 | 24.12 18.32–29.92 16.52–31.73 | 29.00 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.25–3.36 | 2.00 | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.72–3.71 | 2.00 | 4.02 1.65–6.39 0.97–7.07 | 4.00 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 2.34 1.28–3.39 1.01–3.67 | 2.00 | 2.38 1.26–3.50 0.97–3.79 | 3.00 | 4.72 2.54–6.89 1.98–7.46 | 5.00 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.86–4.69 1.47–5.08 | 3.00 | 3.38 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.37 | 3.00 | 6.66 3.69–9.63 2.87–10.45 | 6.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.