Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
21%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.203.26safe1.10–3.030.34–2.051.44–5.08safer0.84–3.280.11–2.280.96–5.56
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.183.8210.00safe4.32–8.042.08–5.576.40–13.61safer3.83–8.531.62–6.035.44–14.56
Total shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0310.7326.76safe12.10–19.957.17–14.2919.27–34.25safer11.01–21.046.21–15.2517.22–36.30
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.836.6217.45safe7.89–13.773.94–9.3011.83–23.08safer7.06–14.603.21–10.0410.26–24.64
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.067.25safe2.31–6.071.40–4.713.71–10.78safer1.76–6.620.91–5.202.68–11.82
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.983.819.79safe3.77–8.201.81–5.815.57–14.00safer3.19–8.771.27–6.344.47–15.11
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction53.9745.25safe47.18–60.7638.47–52.04safer45.51–62.4336.79–53.71
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction534456991safe467–602390–523857–1125safer449–620373–540822–1160
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction76.9275.19safe72.89–80.9570.86–79.51safer71.60–82.2469.55–80.82
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7811.6523.44safe8.95–14.628.71–14.6017.65–29.22safer8.19–15.387.96–15.3516.15–30.72
Offsides
51%
19%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.551.984.52safe1.39–3.710.88–3.072.27–6.78safer1.09–4.010.60–3.361.68–7.37
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.103.64safe0.49–2.590.97–3.231.46–5.81safer0.22–2.850.68–3.520.90–6.37
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.916.52safe1.18–4.052.35–5.463.53–9.51safer0.79–4.441.93–5.892.71–10.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.06 1.10–3.03 0.84–3.28 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 3.26 1.44–5.08 0.96–5.56 | 57% 21% 22% |
| Shots on target | 6.18 4.32–8.04 3.83–8.53 | 3.82 2.08–5.57 1.62–6.03 | 10.00 6.40–13.61 5.44–14.56 | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 16.03 12.10–19.95 11.01–21.04 | 10.73 7.17–14.29 6.21–15.25 | 26.76 19.27–34.25 17.22–36.30 | 82% |
| Shots in box | 10.83 7.89–13.77 7.06–14.60 | 6.62 3.94–9.30 3.21–10.04 | 17.45 11.83–23.08 10.26–24.64 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.31–6.07 1.76–6.62 | 3.06 1.40–4.71 0.91–5.20 | 7.25 3.71–10.78 2.68–11.82 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.98 3.77–8.20 3.19–8.77 | 3.81 1.81–5.81 1.27–6.34 | 9.79 5.57–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 53.97 47.18–60.76 45.51–62.43 | 45.25 38.47–52.04 36.79–53.71 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 534 467–602 449–620 | 456 390–523 373–540 | 991 857–1125 822–1160 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.92 72.89–80.95 71.60–82.24 | 75.19 70.86–79.51 69.55–80.82 | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.95–14.62 8.19–15.38 | 11.65 8.71–14.60 7.96–15.35 | 23.44 17.65–29.22 16.15–30.72 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.55 1.39–3.71 1.09–4.01 | 1.98 0.88–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 4.52 2.27–6.78 1.68–7.37 | 51% 19% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.85 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 3.64 1.46–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.91 2.35–5.46 1.93–5.89 | 6.52 3.53–9.51 2.71–10.32 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.