Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Daniel Siebert
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.282.60safe0.36–2.280.43–2.140.78–4.43safer0.09–2.540.18–2.390.27–4.93actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.924.198.11safe2.06–5.782.48–5.894.54–11.67safer1.57–6.282.01–6.363.58–12.64actual6.008.0014.00
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8611.7224.59safe9.16–16.578.34–15.1017.50–31.67safer8.13–17.607.41–16.0315.54–33.63actual21.0019.0040.00
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.127.4815.61safe5.61–10.645.18–9.7810.79–20.42safer4.74–11.504.38–10.589.13–22.08actual14.0011.0025.00
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.296.60safe1.72–4.891.88–4.713.60–9.60safer1.19–5.431.39–5.192.58–10.62actual5.006.0011.00
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.159.30safe2.95–7.362.17–6.125.11–13.48safer2.35–7.951.63–6.663.98–14.61actual4.008.0012.00
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.8954.98safe39.57–52.2148.66–61.30safer37.98–53.8047.07–62.90actual56.0044.00
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction457526983safe392–523461–590853–1113safer374–540443–608818–1148actual5904641054
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction84.4484.47safe80.23–88.6679.96–88.98safer78.92–89.9678.63–90.31
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2712.1323.40safe8.41–14.129.19–15.0817.59–29.20safer7.52–15.018.27–15.9915.79–31.00actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
59%
21%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.053.03safe0.78–3.190.00–2.210.66–5.40safer0.43–3.540.00–2.540.00–6.08actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
36%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.134.08safe0.89–3.011.01–3.251.90–6.25safer0.62–3.280.72–3.541.34–6.81actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.396.47safe1.67–4.501.84–4.943.51–9.44safer1.28–4.891.40–5.382.68–10.26actual6.006.0012.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.28 0.09–2.54 | 0.00 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.18–2.39 | 2.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.27–4.93 | 2.00 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 3.92 2.06–5.78 1.57–6.28 | 6.00 | 4.19 2.48–5.89 2.01–6.36 | 8.00 | 8.11 4.54–11.67 3.58–12.64 | 14.00 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.86 9.16–16.57 8.13–17.60 | 21.00 | 11.72 8.34–15.10 7.41–16.03 | 19.00 | 24.59 17.50–31.67 15.54–33.63 | 40.00 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.12 5.61–10.64 4.74–11.50 | 14.00 | 7.48 5.18–9.78 4.38–10.58 | 11.00 | 15.61 10.79–20.42 9.13–22.08 | 25.00 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.72–4.89 1.19–5.43 | 5.00 | 3.29 1.88–4.71 1.39–5.19 | 6.00 | 6.60 3.60–9.60 2.58–10.62 | 11.00 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.95–7.36 2.35–7.95 | 4.00 | 4.15 2.17–6.12 1.63–6.66 | 8.00 | 9.30 5.11–13.48 3.98–14.61 | 12.00 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 45.89 39.57–52.21 37.98–53.80 | 56.00 | 54.98 48.66–61.30 47.07–62.90 | 44.00 | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 457 392–523 374–540 | 590 | 526 461–590 443–608 | 464 | 983 853–1113 818–1148 | 1054 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.44 80.23–88.66 78.92–89.96 | — | 84.47 79.96–88.98 78.63–90.31 | — | — | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.27 8.41–14.12 7.52–15.01 | 12.00 | 12.13 9.19–15.08 8.27–15.99 | 11.00 | 23.40 17.59–29.20 15.79–31.00 | 23.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.78–3.19 0.43–3.54 | 1.00 | 1.05 0.00–2.21 0.00–2.54 | 0.00 | 3.03 0.66–5.40 0.00–6.08 | 1.00 | 59% 21% 19% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.89–3.01 0.62–3.28 | 2.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 4.00 | 4.08 1.90–6.25 1.34–6.81 | 6.00 | 36% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.67–4.50 1.28–4.89 | 6.00 | 3.39 1.84–4.94 1.40–5.38 | 6.00 | 6.47 3.51–9.44 2.68–10.26 | 12.00 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+