Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.513.15safe0.68–2.610.65–2.361.33–4.98safer0.43–2.870.42–2.590.85–5.46
Shots on target
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.759.70safe3.09–6.813.00–6.496.09–13.30safer2.60–7.302.54–6.965.14–14.26
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3113.4928.80safe11.39–19.249.92–17.0521.31–36.29safer10.30–20.338.96–18.0119.26–38.34
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.408.8118.21safe6.46–12.346.13–11.4912.58–23.83safer5.63–13.175.39–12.2311.02–25.40
Blocked shots
58%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.347.74safe2.52–6.281.69–4.994.20–11.27safer1.97–6.831.19–5.483.17–12.31
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.6310.09safe3.24–7.672.63–6.635.87–14.30safer2.67–8.252.10–7.164.77–15.41
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.3950.06safe42.60–56.1843.27–56.84safer40.93–57.8541.60–58.51
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction5085061014safe441–575440–573881–1148safer423–594422–590845–1184
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction71.5375.39safe67.50–75.5671.06–79.71safer66.21–76.8569.75–81.02
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3712.1424.51safe9.54–15.219.19–15.0818.73–30.29safer8.78–15.978.44–15.8317.22–31.80
Offsides
30%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.592.84safe0.09–2.410.50–2.680.59–5.09safer0.00–2.710.21–2.970.00–5.68
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.903.88safe0.94–3.040.77–3.031.71–6.06safer0.67–3.300.48–3.321.15–6.62
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.063.046.10safe1.63–4.501.48–4.603.11–9.10safer1.24–4.891.06–5.022.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.61 0.43–2.87 | 1.51 0.65–2.36 0.42–2.59 | 3.15 1.33–4.98 0.85–5.46 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.95 3.09–6.81 2.60–7.30 | 4.75 3.00–6.49 2.54–6.96 | 9.70 6.09–13.30 5.14–14.26 | 46% 41% |
| Total shots | 15.31 11.39–19.24 10.30–20.33 | 13.49 9.92–17.05 8.96–18.01 | 28.80 21.31–36.29 19.26–38.34 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.40 6.46–12.34 5.63–13.17 | 8.81 6.13–11.49 5.39–12.23 | 18.21 12.58–23.83 11.02–25.40 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 4.40 2.52–6.28 1.97–6.83 | 3.34 1.69–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 7.74 4.20–11.27 3.17–12.31 | 58% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.24–7.67 2.67–8.25 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.10–7.16 | 10.09 5.87–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 49.39 42.60–56.18 40.93–57.85 | 50.06 43.27–56.84 41.60–58.51 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 508 441–575 423–594 | 506 440–573 422–590 | 1014 881–1148 845–1184 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.53 67.50–75.56 66.21–76.85 | 75.39 71.06–79.71 69.75–81.02 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 12.14 9.19–15.08 8.44–15.83 | 24.51 18.73–30.29 17.22–31.80 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.25 0.09–2.41 0.00–2.71 | 1.59 0.50–2.68 0.21–2.97 | 2.84 0.59–5.09 0.00–5.68 | 30% 25% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.04 0.67–3.30 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.88 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 3.04 1.48–4.60 1.06–5.02 | 6.10 3.11–9.10 2.30–9.91 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.