Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jarred Gillett
Goals
41%
28%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.062.33safe0.31–2.240.20–1.920.51–4.16safer0.05–2.500.00–2.170.01–4.66actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.703.207.89safe2.84–6.551.49–4.904.33–11.45safer2.34–7.051.02–5.373.36–12.42actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.039.8524.89safe11.33–18.746.47–13.2317.80–31.97safer10.30–19.775.54–14.1615.84–33.93actual17.0010.0027.00
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction8.856.3315.17safe6.33–11.364.02–8.6310.35–19.99safer5.47–12.233.23–9.428.69–21.65actual12.006.0018.00
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.862.486.34safe2.28–5.441.06–3.893.34–9.33safer1.74–5.980.57–4.382.32–10.35actual6.002.008.00
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.574.049.61safe3.36–7.782.07–6.025.43–13.80safer2.77–8.371.53–6.564.30–14.93actual4.002.006.00
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction46.9452.64safe40.62–53.2646.32–58.95safer39.03–54.8644.72–60.55actual57.0043.00
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction392434826safe326–457369–499696–955safer309–474352–516660–991actual528405933
Pass accuracy %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction76.4579.09safe72.23–80.6774.59–83.60safer70.93–81.9773.26–84.93
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3413.2626.60safe10.48–16.1910.31–16.2020.79–32.40safer9.59–17.089.40–17.1218.99–34.20actual12.0019.0031.00
Offsides
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.202.90safe0.49–2.910.04–2.360.53–5.27safer0.15–3.250.00–2.700.00–5.95actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.194.08safe0.83–2.941.07–3.311.90–6.25safer0.56–3.210.78–3.601.34–6.82actual4.004.008.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.070.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
17%
14%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.913.635.54safe0.49–3.322.08–5.192.57–8.51safer0.10–3.711.65–5.621.75–9.33actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.50 | 0.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 1.00 | 2.33 0.51–4.16 0.01–4.66 | 1.00 | 41% 28% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.55 2.34–7.05 | 4.00 | 3.20 1.49–4.90 1.02–5.37 | 3.00 | 7.89 4.33–11.45 3.36–12.42 | 7.00 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.03 11.33–18.74 10.30–19.77 | 17.00 | 9.85 6.47–13.23 5.54–14.16 | 10.00 | 24.89 17.80–31.97 15.84–33.93 | 27.00 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 8.85 6.33–11.36 5.47–12.23 | 12.00 | 6.33 4.02–8.63 3.23–9.42 | 6.00 | 15.17 10.35–19.99 8.69–21.65 | 18.00 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 2.28–5.44 1.74–5.98 | 6.00 | 2.48 1.06–3.89 0.57–4.38 | 2.00 | 6.34 3.34–9.33 2.32–10.35 | 8.00 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.57 3.36–7.78 2.77–8.37 | 4.00 | 4.04 2.07–6.02 1.53–6.56 | 2.00 | 9.61 5.43–13.80 4.30–14.93 | 6.00 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 46.94 40.62–53.26 39.03–54.86 | 57.00 | 52.64 46.32–58.95 44.72–60.55 | 43.00 | — | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 392 326–457 309–474 | 528 | 434 369–499 352–516 | 405 | 826 696–955 660–991 | 933 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.45 72.23–80.67 70.93–81.97 | — | 79.09 74.59–83.60 73.26–84.93 | — | — | — | 35% 61% |
| Fouls | 13.34 10.48–16.19 9.59–17.08 | 12.00 | 13.26 10.31–16.20 9.40–17.12 | 19.00 | 26.60 20.79–32.40 18.99–34.20 | 31.00 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.15–3.25 | 1.00 | 1.20 0.04–2.36 0.00–2.70 | 3.00 | 2.90 0.53–5.27 0.00–5.95 | 4.00 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.83–2.94 0.56–3.21 | 4.00 | 2.19 1.07–3.31 0.78–3.60 | 4.00 | 4.08 1.90–6.25 1.34–6.82 | 8.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 1.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.74 | 1.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 1.91 0.49–3.32 0.10–3.71 | 2.00 | 3.63 2.08–5.19 1.65–5.62 | 4.00 | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | 6.00 | 17% 14% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.