Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.062.38safe0.35–2.280.21–1.920.56–4.20safer0.09–2.530.00–2.150.08–4.68
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.014.278.28safe2.15–5.872.52–6.014.67–11.88safer1.66–6.362.06–6.473.72–12.84
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8012.7624.56safe7.87–15.729.20–16.3317.07–32.05safer6.78–16.818.24–17.2915.02–34.10
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.568.2615.82safe4.61–10.505.58–10.9410.20–21.44safer3.79–11.334.85–11.688.63–23.01
Blocked shots
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.436.33safe1.01–4.781.78–5.082.79–9.86safer0.47–5.321.28–5.581.76–10.90
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.559.23safe2.47–6.892.55–6.555.01–13.44safer1.89–7.472.01–7.083.91–14.55
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.9148.68safe45.12–58.7041.90–55.47safer43.45–60.3740.23–57.14
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction516464980safe449–583398–530846–1114safer431–601380–548811–1149
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction69.9274.05safe65.89–73.9569.73–78.37safer64.60–75.2468.42–79.68
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1712.3525.52safe10.33–16.009.41–15.3019.74–31.30safer9.57–16.768.66–16.0518.24–32.81
Offsides
57%
20%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.373.61safe1.08–3.400.28–2.461.35–5.86safer0.78–3.700.00–2.750.77–6.45
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.264.41safe1.11–3.201.13–3.382.23–6.59safer0.84–3.470.84–3.681.67–7.15
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.705.63safe1.50–4.371.14–4.252.64–8.62safer1.11–4.760.72–4.681.83–9.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.38 0.56–4.20 0.08–4.68 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.01 2.15–5.87 1.66–6.36 | 4.27 2.52–6.01 2.06–6.47 | 8.28 4.67–11.88 3.72–12.84 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 11.80 7.87–15.72 6.78–16.81 | 12.76 9.20–16.33 8.24–17.29 | 24.56 17.07–32.05 15.02–34.10 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.56 4.61–10.50 3.79–11.33 | 8.26 5.58–10.94 4.85–11.68 | 15.82 10.20–21.44 8.63–23.01 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 2.90 1.01–4.78 0.47–5.32 | 3.43 1.78–5.08 1.28–5.58 | 6.33 2.79–9.86 1.76–10.90 | 34% 16% 50% |
| Corners | 4.68 2.47–6.89 1.89–7.47 | 4.55 2.55–6.55 2.01–7.08 | 9.23 5.01–13.44 3.91–14.55 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 51.91 45.12–58.70 43.45–60.37 | 48.68 41.90–55.47 40.23–57.14 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 516 449–583 431–601 | 464 398–530 380–548 | 980 846–1114 811–1149 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.92 65.89–73.95 64.60–75.24 | 74.05 69.73–78.37 68.42–79.68 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 13.17 10.33–16.00 9.57–16.76 | 12.35 9.41–15.30 8.66–16.05 | 25.52 19.74–31.30 18.24–32.81 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.08–3.40 0.78–3.70 | 1.37 0.28–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 3.61 1.35–5.86 0.77–6.45 | 57% 20% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.20 0.84–3.47 | 2.26 1.13–3.38 0.84–3.68 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.67–7.15 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 2.70 1.14–4.25 0.72–4.68 | 5.63 2.64–8.62 1.83–9.44 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.