UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Anastasios Papapetrou
Goals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.002.69safe0.73–2.650.14–1.860.87–4.51safer0.47–2.910.00–2.110.36–5.02actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.303.358.65safe3.44–7.161.64–5.055.08–12.21safer2.94–7.651.17–5.524.12–13.18actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5310.3324.86safe10.83–18.246.95–13.7117.78–31.95safer9.80–19.276.02–14.6415.82–33.91actual14.009.0023.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.036.4116.43safe7.51–12.544.10–8.7111.62–21.25safer6.65–13.413.31–9.509.96–22.91actual6.004.0010.00
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.836.73safe2.32–5.481.42–4.253.73–9.73safer1.78–6.020.93–4.732.71–10.75actual3.003.006.00
Corners
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.463.6410.10safe4.25–8.661.67–5.625.92–14.28safer3.66–9.261.13–6.164.78–15.42actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction56.5945.22safe50.27–62.9138.90–51.53safer48.67–64.5037.30–53.13actual57.0043.00
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction502385887safe436–567320–450757–1017safer419–585303–467722–1052actual436447883
Pass accuracy %
81%
15%
homeawayprediction85.8678.17safe81.64–90.0773.66–82.68safer80.34–91.3872.33–84.01
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5612.5324.09safe8.70–14.419.58–15.4718.28–29.89safer7.81–15.308.67–16.3916.48–31.69actual18.0017.0035.00
Offsides
66%
18%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.451.143.59safe1.24–3.660.00–2.301.22–5.96safer0.90–4.010.00–2.630.54–6.64actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.153.71safe0.51–2.621.03–3.271.54–5.89safer0.23–2.890.74–3.560.97–6.45actual3.005.008.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
21%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.253.665.91safe0.84–3.672.11–5.222.94–8.88safer0.45–4.061.68–5.652.12–9.70actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.73–2.65 0.47–2.91 | 0.00 | 1.00 0.14–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 0.00 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.36–5.02 | 0.00 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.44–7.16 2.94–7.65 | 4.00 | 3.35 1.64–5.05 1.17–5.52 | 1.00 | 8.65 5.08–12.21 4.12–13.18 | 5.00 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 14.53 10.83–18.24 9.80–19.27 | 14.00 | 10.33 6.95–13.71 6.02–14.64 | 9.00 | 24.86 17.78–31.95 15.82–33.91 | 23.00 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.03 7.51–12.54 6.65–13.41 | 6.00 | 6.41 4.10–8.71 3.31–9.50 | 4.00 | 16.43 11.62–21.25 9.96–22.91 | 10.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.32–5.48 1.78–6.02 | 3.00 | 2.83 1.42–4.25 0.93–4.73 | 3.00 | 6.73 3.73–9.73 2.71–10.75 | 6.00 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 6.46 4.25–8.66 3.66–9.26 | 3.00 | 3.64 1.67–5.62 1.13–6.16 | 3.00 | 10.10 5.92–14.28 4.78–15.42 | 6.00 | 77% 15% |
| Possession % | 56.59 50.27–62.91 48.67–64.50 | 57.00 | 45.22 38.90–51.53 37.30–53.13 | 43.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 502 436–567 419–585 | 436 | 385 320–450 303–467 | 447 | 887 757–1017 722–1052 | 883 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.86 81.64–90.07 80.34–91.38 | — | 78.17 73.66–82.68 72.33–84.01 | — | — | — | 81% 15% |
| Fouls | 11.56 8.70–14.41 7.81–15.30 | 18.00 | 12.53 9.58–15.47 8.67–16.39 | 17.00 | 24.09 18.28–29.89 16.48–31.69 | 35.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.45 1.24–3.66 0.90–4.01 | 1.00 | 1.14 0.00–2.30 0.00–2.63 | 0.00 | 3.59 1.22–5.96 0.54–6.64 | 1.00 | 66% 18% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.62 0.23–2.89 | 3.00 | 2.15 1.03–3.27 0.74–3.56 | 5.00 | 3.71 1.54–5.89 0.97–6.45 | 8.00 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.25 0.84–3.67 0.45–4.06 | 1.00 | 3.66 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.65 | 4.00 | 5.91 2.94–8.88 2.12–9.70 | 5.00 | 21% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.