Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ondrej Berka
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.192.68safe0.53–2.450.33–2.050.86–4.50safer0.27–2.710.08–2.290.35–5.01actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
51%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.158.89safe2.89–6.602.44–5.855.33–12.45safer2.39–7.101.97–6.324.36–13.42actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9312.6927.62safe11.23–18.649.31–16.0620.54–34.70safer10.20–19.678.38–17.0018.57–36.66actual11.0010.0021.00
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.897.1516.04safe6.38–11.414.85–9.4511.22–20.86safer5.51–12.284.05–10.249.56–22.52actual5.004.009.00
Blocked shots
49%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.146.70safe1.98–5.151.72–4.553.70–9.70safer1.45–5.681.23–5.042.68–10.72actual4.001.005.00
Corners
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.219.06safe2.64–7.052.23–6.194.88–13.24safer2.05–7.651.70–6.733.74–14.38actual3.000.003.00
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.0451.51safe41.72–54.3545.19–57.83safer40.12–55.9543.59–59.42actual60.0040.00
Passes
35%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction399442841safe333–464378–507711–971safer316–482360–525676–1006actual584391975
Pass accuracy %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction81.0782.89safe76.85–85.2878.38–87.40safer75.55–86.5877.05–88.73
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5911.0722.66safe8.73–14.458.13–14.0216.86–28.47safer7.85–15.337.21–14.9415.06–30.27actual6.0016.0022.00
Offsides
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.422.243.66safe0.21–2.631.08–3.401.29–6.03safer0.00–2.970.74–3.730.61–6.71actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.803.51safe0.66–2.770.68–2.921.34–5.69safer0.39–3.040.39–3.210.78–6.25actual0.005.005.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.812.656.46safe2.39–5.221.10–4.213.49–9.43safer2.00–5.610.67–4.642.67–10.25actual0.002.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.53–2.45 0.27–2.71 | 2.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.08–2.29 | 1.00 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.35–5.01 | 3.00 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.89–6.60 2.39–7.10 | 4.00 | 4.15 2.44–5.85 1.97–6.32 | 1.00 | 8.89 5.33–12.45 4.36–13.42 | 5.00 | 51% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.93 11.23–18.64 10.20–19.67 | 11.00 | 12.69 9.31–16.06 8.38–17.00 | 10.00 | 27.62 20.54–34.70 18.57–36.66 | 21.00 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 6.38–11.41 5.51–12.28 | 5.00 | 7.15 4.85–9.45 4.05–10.24 | 4.00 | 16.04 11.22–20.86 9.56–22.52 | 9.00 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.98–5.15 1.45–5.68 | 4.00 | 3.14 1.72–4.55 1.23–5.04 | 1.00 | 6.70 3.70–9.70 2.68–10.72 | 5.00 | 49% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 4.85 2.64–7.05 2.05–7.65 | 3.00 | 4.21 2.23–6.19 1.70–6.73 | 0.00 | 9.06 4.88–13.24 3.74–14.38 | 3.00 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.04 41.72–54.35 40.12–55.95 | 60.00 | 51.51 45.19–57.83 43.59–59.42 | 40.00 | — | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 399 333–464 316–482 | 584 | 442 378–507 360–525 | 391 | 841 711–971 676–1006 | 975 | 35% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.07 76.85–85.28 75.55–86.58 | — | 82.89 78.38–87.40 77.05–88.73 | — | — | — | 39% 57% |
| Fouls | 11.59 8.73–14.45 7.85–15.33 | 6.00 | 11.07 8.13–14.02 7.21–14.94 | 16.00 | 22.66 16.86–28.47 15.06–30.27 | 22.00 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.21–2.63 0.00–2.97 | 3.00 | 2.24 1.08–3.40 0.74–3.73 | 2.00 | 3.66 1.29–6.03 0.61–6.71 | 5.00 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.77 0.39–3.04 | 0.00 | 1.80 0.68–2.92 0.39–3.21 | 5.00 | 3.51 1.34–5.69 0.78–6.25 | 5.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.81 2.39–5.22 2.00–5.61 | 0.00 | 2.65 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 2.00 | 6.46 3.49–9.43 2.67–10.25 | 2.00 | 60% 15% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.