Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.282.71safe0.45–2.390.43–2.140.88–4.53safer0.20–2.640.20–2.370.40–5.01
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.054.149.19safe3.19–6.912.39–5.885.58–12.79safer2.70–7.401.93–6.344.63–13.75
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4510.9925.44safe10.53–18.387.42–14.5517.95–32.92safer9.43–19.476.46–15.5115.90–34.97
Shots in box
64%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.756.7815.53safe5.80–11.694.10–9.469.91–21.15safer4.98–12.523.36–10.208.34–22.72
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.836.47safe1.76–5.531.17–4.482.93–10.01safer1.22–6.070.68–4.971.90–11.04
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.174.089.25safe2.96–7.382.08–6.085.04–13.46safer2.38–7.961.55–6.613.93–14.57
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.7548.70safe43.96–57.5441.92–55.49safer42.29–59.2140.25–57.16
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction475439914safe408–542373–506781–1048safer390–561355–523745–1084
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction71.8473.03safe67.81–75.8768.71–77.36safer66.52–77.1667.40–78.67
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1510.9623.11safe9.32–14.998.01–13.9017.33–28.89safer8.56–15.757.26–14.6515.82–30.40
Offsides
49%
20%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.753.97safe1.06–3.380.66–2.851.72–6.23safer0.76–3.680.37–3.131.13–6.82
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.783.47safe0.64–2.740.65–2.911.29–5.65safer0.37–3.000.36–3.200.74–6.21
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.636.37safe1.30–4.182.07–5.193.38–9.36safer0.92–4.561.65–5.612.57–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.28 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.71 0.88–4.53 0.40–5.01 | 40% 26% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.19–6.91 2.70–7.40 | 4.14 2.39–5.88 1.93–6.34 | 9.19 5.58–12.79 4.63–13.75 | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.45 10.53–18.38 9.43–19.47 | 10.99 7.42–14.55 6.46–15.51 | 25.44 17.95–32.92 15.90–34.97 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.75 5.80–11.69 4.98–12.52 | 6.78 4.10–9.46 3.36–10.20 | 15.53 9.91–21.15 8.34–22.72 | 64% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.53 1.22–6.07 | 2.83 1.17–4.48 0.68–4.97 | 6.47 2.93–10.01 1.90–11.04 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.96–7.38 2.38–7.96 | 4.08 2.08–6.08 1.55–6.61 | 9.25 5.04–13.46 3.93–14.57 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 50.75 43.96–57.54 42.29–59.21 | 48.70 41.92–55.49 40.25–57.16 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 475 408–542 390–561 | 439 373–506 355–523 | 914 781–1048 745–1084 | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.84 67.81–75.87 66.52–77.16 | 73.03 68.71–77.36 67.40–78.67 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.32–14.99 8.56–15.75 | 10.96 8.01–13.90 7.26–14.65 | 23.11 17.33–28.89 15.82–30.40 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.22 1.06–3.38 0.76–3.68 | 1.75 0.66–2.85 0.37–3.13 | 3.97 1.72–6.23 1.13–6.82 | 49% 20% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.30–4.18 0.92–4.56 | 3.63 2.07–5.19 1.65–5.61 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.57–10.17 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.