UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Daniele Chiffi
Goals
51%
26%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.530.952.47safe0.56–2.490.09–1.810.65–4.30safer0.30–2.750.00–2.050.14–4.80actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.133.458.58safe3.27–6.981.74–5.165.01–12.14safer2.77–7.481.28–5.634.05–13.11actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6110.6226.23safe11.90–19.317.24–14.0019.14–33.31safer10.87–20.346.31–14.9317.18–35.27actual19.0011.0030.00
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction9.856.6216.47safe7.33–12.374.32–8.9211.65–21.29safer6.47–13.233.52–9.729.99–22.95actual14.006.0020.00
Blocked shots
55%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.522.706.22safe1.94–5.111.29–4.123.23–9.22safer1.40–5.640.80–4.602.20–10.24actual5.002.007.00
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.264.1810.44safe4.05–8.462.20–6.166.26–14.62safer3.46–9.061.67–6.705.12–15.75actual8.001.009.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction54.5343.20safe48.22–60.8536.88–49.52safer46.62–62.4535.29–51.12actual64.0036.00
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction435341776safe369–500277–406646–906safer352–518259–424611–941actual531299830
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction80.2073.93safe75.98–84.4169.42–78.44safer74.68–85.7168.09–79.77
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2114.2426.45safe9.35–15.0711.30–17.1920.65–32.25safer8.47–15.9510.38–18.1118.85–34.06actual7.007.0014.00
Offsides
48%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.393.20safe0.60–3.020.22–2.550.82–5.57safer0.26–3.360.00–2.880.15–6.25actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.404.19safe0.73–2.841.28–3.522.01–6.36safer0.45–3.110.99–3.811.45–6.92actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.090.12safe0.00–0.180.00–0.290.00–0.47safer0.00–0.340.00–0.430.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.786.14safe0.95–3.782.22–5.333.17–9.11safer0.56–4.171.79–5.762.35–9.93actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.75 | 2.00 | 0.95 0.09–1.81 0.00–2.05 | 1.00 | 2.47 0.65–4.30 0.14–4.80 | 3.00 | 51% 26% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.13 3.27–6.98 2.77–7.48 | 4.00 | 3.45 1.74–5.16 1.28–5.63 | 4.00 | 8.58 5.01–12.14 4.05–13.11 | 8.00 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.61 11.90–19.31 10.87–20.34 | 19.00 | 10.62 7.24–14.00 6.31–14.93 | 11.00 | 26.23 19.14–33.31 17.18–35.27 | 30.00 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 9.85 7.33–12.37 6.47–13.23 | 14.00 | 6.62 4.32–8.92 3.52–9.72 | 6.00 | 16.47 11.65–21.29 9.99–22.95 | 20.00 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.94–5.11 1.40–5.64 | 5.00 | 2.70 1.29–4.12 0.80–4.60 | 2.00 | 6.22 3.23–9.22 2.20–10.24 | 7.00 | 55% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 6.26 4.05–8.46 3.46–9.06 | 8.00 | 4.18 2.20–6.16 1.67–6.70 | 1.00 | 10.44 6.26–14.62 5.12–15.75 | 9.00 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 54.53 48.22–60.85 46.62–62.45 | 64.00 | 43.20 36.88–49.52 35.29–51.12 | 36.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 435 369–500 352–518 | 531 | 341 277–406 259–424 | 299 | 776 646–906 611–941 | 830 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.20 75.98–84.41 74.68–85.71 | — | 73.93 69.42–78.44 68.09–79.77 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 12.21 9.35–15.07 8.47–15.95 | 7.00 | 14.24 11.30–17.19 10.38–18.11 | 7.00 | 26.45 20.65–32.25 18.85–34.06 | 14.00 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.60–3.02 0.26–3.36 | 1.00 | 1.39 0.22–2.55 0.00–2.88 | 2.00 | 3.20 0.82–5.57 0.15–6.25 | 3.00 | 48% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.84 0.45–3.11 | 1.00 | 2.40 1.28–3.52 0.99–3.81 | 3.00 | 4.19 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 4.00 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.95–3.78 0.56–4.17 | 3.00 | 3.78 2.22–5.33 1.79–5.76 | 2.00 | 6.14 3.17–9.11 2.35–9.93 | 5.00 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.