UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Nathan Verboomen
Goals
33%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.222.32safe0.14–2.060.36–2.080.50–4.14safer0.00–2.320.11–2.330.00–4.65actual0.007.007.00
Shots on target
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.943.627.55safe2.08–5.791.91–5.323.99–11.12safer1.58–6.291.44–5.793.02–12.08actual0.0011.0011.00
Total shots
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6711.4824.16safe8.97–16.388.10–14.8617.07–31.24safer7.94–17.417.17–15.7915.11–33.20actual1.0023.0024.00
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.017.6214.63safe4.49–9.535.32–9.929.81–19.45safer3.63–10.394.52–10.728.15–21.11actual0.0018.0018.00
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.496.39safe1.31–4.482.08–4.903.39–9.39safer0.78–5.021.59–5.392.37–10.41actual0.005.005.00
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.225.1910.41safe3.02–7.433.22–7.176.23–14.60safer2.42–8.022.68–7.715.10–15.73actual0.004.004.00
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.1152.98safe39.80–52.4346.66–59.30safer38.20–54.0345.06–60.89actual25.0075.00
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction384446830safe319–449381–510700–960safer301–467364–528665–995actual2587811039
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction77.0279.83safe72.80–81.2375.32–84.34safer71.50–82.5373.99–85.67
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6011.2222.82safe8.74–14.468.27–14.1617.02–28.62safer7.86–15.347.36–15.0815.21–30.42actual14.0010.0024.00
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.573.59safe0.82–3.240.40–2.731.22–5.96safer0.47–3.580.07–3.060.54–6.64actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.014.11safe1.05–3.160.89–3.131.94–6.29safer0.77–3.430.60–3.421.38–6.85actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.080.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.410.00–0.75actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.755.60safe1.44–4.271.19–4.302.64–8.57safer1.05–4.660.76–4.731.81–9.39actual4.000.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.14–2.06 0.00–2.32 | 0.00 | 1.22 0.36–2.08 0.11–2.33 | 7.00 | 2.32 0.50–4.14 0.00–4.65 | 7.00 | 33% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.08–5.79 1.58–6.29 | 0.00 | 3.62 1.91–5.32 1.44–5.79 | 11.00 | 7.55 3.99–11.12 3.02–12.08 | 11.00 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Total shots | 12.67 8.97–16.38 7.94–17.41 | 1.00 | 11.48 8.10–14.86 7.17–15.79 | 23.00 | 24.16 17.07–31.24 15.11–33.20 | 24.00 | 56% 37% |
| Shots in box | 7.01 4.49–9.53 3.63–10.39 | 0.00 | 7.62 5.32–9.92 4.52–10.72 | 18.00 | 14.63 9.81–19.45 8.15–21.11 | 18.00 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 2.90 1.31–4.48 0.78–5.02 | 0.00 | 3.49 2.08–4.90 1.59–5.39 | 5.00 | 6.39 3.39–9.39 2.37–10.41 | 5.00 | 33% 16% 51% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.02–7.43 2.42–8.02 | 0.00 | 5.19 3.22–7.17 2.68–7.71 | 4.00 | 10.41 6.23–14.60 5.10–15.73 | 4.00 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 46.11 39.80–52.43 38.20–54.03 | 25.00 | 52.98 46.66–59.30 45.06–60.89 | 75.00 | — | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 384 319–449 301–467 | 258 | 446 381–510 364–528 | 781 | 830 700–960 665–995 | 1039 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.02 72.80–81.23 71.50–82.53 | — | 79.83 75.32–84.34 73.99–85.67 | — | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.60 8.74–14.46 7.86–15.34 | 14.00 | 11.22 8.27–14.16 7.36–15.08 | 10.00 | 22.82 17.02–28.62 15.21–30.42 | 24.00 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.82–3.24 0.47–3.58 | 2.00 | 1.57 0.40–2.73 0.07–3.06 | 2.00 | 3.59 1.22–5.96 0.54–6.64 | 4.00 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.05–3.16 0.77–3.43 | 1.00 | 2.01 0.89–3.13 0.60–3.42 | 1.00 | 4.11 1.94–6.29 1.38–6.85 | 2.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 1.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.44–4.27 1.05–4.66 | 4.00 | 2.75 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.73 | 0.00 | 5.60 2.64–8.57 1.81–9.39 | 4.00 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.