UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 1·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ishmael Barbara
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.452.58safe0.17–2.100.59–2.310.76–4.40safer0.00–2.360.34–2.550.25–4.91actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.065.079.14safe2.21–5.923.36–6.785.57–12.70safer1.71–6.422.90–7.254.61–13.67actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8714.2726.14safe8.17–15.5810.89–17.6419.06–33.22safer7.14–16.619.96–18.5717.10–35.18actual14.0010.0024.00
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.858.5416.39safe5.33–10.366.24–10.8411.57–21.20safer4.47–11.235.44–11.649.91–22.87actual9.003.0012.00
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.786.81safe1.44–4.612.36–5.193.81–9.80safer0.91–5.151.88–5.682.79–10.83actual4.004.008.00
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.905.4010.30safe2.69–7.103.42–7.386.12–14.48safer2.10–7.702.89–7.924.98–15.62actual7.005.0012.00
Possession %
24%
71%
homeawayprediction44.6654.63safe38.34–50.9848.31–60.95safer36.75–52.5846.72–62.55actual42.0058.00
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction393450843safe328–458386–515713–973safer310–476368–532678–1008actual387539926
Pass accuracy %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction76.8579.93safe72.63–81.0775.42–84.43safer71.33–82.3774.09–85.76
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7312.6123.33safe7.87–13.589.66–15.5517.53–29.14safer6.98–14.478.74–16.4715.73–30.94actual10.0010.0020.00
Offsides
48%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.423.26safe0.64–3.060.26–2.580.89–5.64safer0.29–3.400.00–2.910.22–6.31actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.063.73safe0.61–2.720.94–3.181.55–5.90safer0.34–2.990.65–3.470.99–6.47actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.060.09safe0.00–0.180.00–0.260.00–0.44safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
41%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.005.94safe1.52–4.351.45–4.562.97–8.91safer1.13–4.741.02–4.992.15–9.73actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 1.00 | 1.45 0.59–2.31 0.34–2.55 | 1.00 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.25–4.91 | 2.00 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.21–5.92 1.71–6.42 | 5.00 | 5.07 3.36–6.78 2.90–7.25 | 2.00 | 9.14 5.57–12.70 4.61–13.67 | 7.00 | 31% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.87 8.17–15.58 7.14–16.61 | 14.00 | 14.27 10.89–17.64 9.96–18.57 | 10.00 | 26.14 19.06–33.22 17.10–35.18 | 24.00 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 7.85 5.33–10.36 4.47–11.23 | 9.00 | 8.54 6.24–10.84 5.44–11.64 | 3.00 | 16.39 11.57–21.20 9.91–22.87 | 12.00 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.44–4.61 0.91–5.15 | 4.00 | 3.78 2.36–5.19 1.88–5.68 | 4.00 | 6.81 3.81–9.80 2.79–10.83 | 8.00 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.90 2.69–7.10 2.10–7.70 | 7.00 | 5.40 3.42–7.38 2.89–7.92 | 5.00 | 10.30 6.12–14.48 4.98–15.62 | 12.00 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 44.66 38.34–50.98 36.75–52.58 | 42.00 | 54.63 48.31–60.95 46.72–62.55 | 58.00 | — | — | 24% 71% |
| Passes | 393 328–458 310–476 | 387 | 450 386–515 368–532 | 539 | 843 713–973 678–1008 | 926 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.85 72.63–81.07 71.33–82.37 | — | 79.93 75.42–84.43 74.09–85.76 | — | — | — | 33% 63% |
| Fouls | 10.73 7.87–13.58 6.98–14.47 | 10.00 | 12.61 9.66–15.55 8.74–16.47 | 10.00 | 23.33 17.53–29.14 15.73–30.94 | 20.00 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.64–3.06 0.29–3.40 | 0.00 | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.91 | 1.00 | 3.26 0.89–5.64 0.22–6.31 | 1.00 | 48% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.61–2.72 0.34–2.99 | 0.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 2.00 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.47 | 2.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.52–4.35 1.13–4.74 | 1.00 | 3.00 1.45–4.56 1.02–4.99 | 3.00 | 5.94 2.97–8.91 2.15–9.73 | 4.00 | 41% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.