Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Milos Milanovic
Goals
60%
23%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.780.822.60safe0.82–2.740.00–1.680.78–4.43safer0.56–3.000.00–1.930.27–4.93actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.868.93safe3.21–6.922.16–5.575.37–12.49safer2.71–7.421.69–6.044.40–13.46actual8.005.0013.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5510.8327.38safe12.84–20.257.46–14.2120.30–34.46safer11.81–21.286.52–15.1418.34–36.42actual19.008.0027.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction10.505.2315.73safe7.98–13.022.93–7.5410.92–20.55safer7.12–13.882.14–8.339.26–22.21actual13.005.0018.00
Blocked shots
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.222.426.64safe2.64–5.811.00–3.833.64–9.64safer2.11–6.340.52–4.322.62–10.66actual4.000.004.00
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.303.129.42safe4.10–8.511.14–5.105.24–13.61safer3.50–9.100.61–5.644.11–14.74actual7.003.0010.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction60.1939.13safe53.87–66.5132.81–45.45safer52.27–68.1031.21–47.05actual63.0037.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction516319834safe450–581254–383704–964safer433–599236–401669–999actual538315853
Pass accuracy %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction80.4973.48safe76.27–84.7068.97–77.99safer74.97–86.0067.64–79.32
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9011.5222.42safe8.04–13.768.58–14.4716.62–28.22safer7.16–14.647.66–15.3914.82–30.03actual13.0013.0026.00
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.773.48safe0.50–2.920.61–2.931.11–5.86safer0.16–3.270.27–3.260.43–6.53actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
34%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.123.93safe0.75–2.861.00–3.241.75–6.10safer0.48–3.130.71–3.531.19–6.67actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.430.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
18%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.354.126.47safe0.93–3.762.57–5.683.50–9.44safer0.54–4.152.14–6.112.68–10.26actual4.007.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.82–2.74 0.56–3.00 | 1.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.93 | 1.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.43 0.27–4.93 | 2.00 | 60% 23% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.92 2.71–7.42 | 8.00 | 3.86 2.16–5.57 1.69–6.04 | 5.00 | 8.93 5.37–12.49 4.40–13.46 | 13.00 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 16.55 12.84–20.25 11.81–21.28 | 19.00 | 10.83 7.46–14.21 6.52–15.14 | 8.00 | 27.38 20.30–34.46 18.34–36.42 | 27.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.50 7.98–13.02 7.12–13.88 | 13.00 | 5.23 2.93–7.54 2.14–8.33 | 5.00 | 15.73 10.92–20.55 9.26–22.21 | 18.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.64–5.81 2.11–6.34 | 4.00 | 2.42 1.00–3.83 0.52–4.32 | 0.00 | 6.64 3.64–9.64 2.62–10.66 | 4.00 | 69% 18% |
| Corners | 6.30 4.10–8.51 3.50–9.10 | 7.00 | 3.12 1.14–5.10 0.61–5.64 | 3.00 | 9.42 5.24–13.61 4.11–14.74 | 10.00 | 81% |
| Possession % | 60.19 53.87–66.51 52.27–68.10 | 63.00 | 39.13 32.81–45.45 31.21–47.05 | 37.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 516 450–581 433–599 | 538 | 319 254–383 236–401 | 315 | 834 704–964 669–999 | 853 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.49 76.27–84.70 74.97–86.00 | — | 73.48 68.97–77.99 67.64–79.32 | — | — | — | 79% 17% |
| Fouls | 10.90 8.04–13.76 7.16–14.64 | 13.00 | 11.52 8.58–14.47 7.66–15.39 | 13.00 | 22.42 16.62–28.22 14.82–30.03 | 26.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.92 0.16–3.27 | 3.00 | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.27–3.26 | 0.00 | 3.48 1.11–5.86 0.43–6.53 | 3.00 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.75–2.86 0.48–3.13 | 1.00 | 2.12 1.00–3.24 0.71–3.53 | 2.00 | 3.93 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.67 | 3.00 | 34% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.93–3.76 0.54–4.15 | 4.00 | 4.12 2.57–5.68 2.14–6.11 | 7.00 | 6.47 3.50–9.44 2.68–10.26 | 11.00 | 18% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.