Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Davide Massa
Goals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.603.00safe0.44–2.360.74–2.461.18–4.83safer0.18–2.620.50–2.710.67–5.33actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.674.939.60safe2.81–6.533.22–6.636.03–13.16safer2.31–7.022.75–7.105.07–14.13actual5.005.0010.00
Total shots
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5214.2926.81safe8.82–16.2210.91–17.6619.73–33.89safer7.79–17.269.98–18.6017.76–35.85actual13.0015.0028.00
Shots in box
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction8.479.1517.63safe5.96–10.996.85–11.4612.81–22.44safer5.09–11.856.06–12.2511.15–24.11actual7.008.0015.00
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.586.57safe1.41–4.582.16–4.993.57–9.57safer0.88–5.111.68–5.482.55–10.59actual2.005.007.00
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.895.6110.50safe2.69–7.103.63–7.596.32–14.69safer2.09–7.693.09–8.125.19–15.82actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.8354.35safe40.51–53.1548.03–60.67safer38.92–54.7446.43–62.26actual47.0053.00
Passes
21%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction446538984safe381–511474–603854–1114safer363–529456–620819–1149actual446511957
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction85.2186.45safe81.00–89.4381.95–90.96safer79.70–90.7380.62–92.29
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1314.0026.13safe9.27–14.9911.05–16.9420.32–31.93safer8.39–15.8710.13–17.8618.52–33.73actual11.0016.0027.00
Offsides
42%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.933.96safe0.82–3.240.77–3.091.59–6.33safer0.48–3.580.43–3.420.91–7.01actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.322.384.70safe1.27–3.381.26–3.502.52–6.88safer1.00–3.650.97–3.791.96–7.44actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.916.23safe1.90–4.731.35–4.463.26–9.19safer1.52–5.120.92–4.892.44–10.02actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.44–2.36 0.18–2.62 | 2.00 | 1.60 0.74–2.46 0.50–2.71 | 3.00 | 3.00 1.18–4.83 0.67–5.33 | 5.00 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.67 2.81–6.53 2.31–7.02 | 5.00 | 4.93 3.22–6.63 2.75–7.10 | 5.00 | 9.60 6.03–13.16 5.07–14.13 | 10.00 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.52 8.82–16.22 7.79–17.26 | 13.00 | 14.29 10.91–17.66 9.98–18.60 | 15.00 | 26.81 19.73–33.89 17.76–35.85 | 28.00 | 33% 60% |
| Shots in box | 8.47 5.96–10.99 5.09–11.85 | 7.00 | 9.15 6.85–11.46 6.06–12.25 | 8.00 | 17.63 12.81–22.44 11.15–24.11 | 15.00 | 39% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 1.41–4.58 0.88–5.11 | 2.00 | 3.58 2.16–4.99 1.68–5.48 | 5.00 | 6.57 3.57–9.57 2.55–10.59 | 7.00 | 33% 16% 51% |
| Corners | 4.89 2.69–7.10 2.09–7.69 | 6.00 | 5.61 3.63–7.59 3.09–8.12 | 3.00 | 10.50 6.32–14.69 5.19–15.82 | 9.00 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 46.83 40.51–53.15 38.92–54.74 | 47.00 | 54.35 48.03–60.67 46.43–62.26 | 53.00 | — | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 446 381–511 363–529 | 446 | 538 474–603 456–620 | 511 | 984 854–1114 819–1149 | 957 | 21% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.21 81.00–89.43 79.70–90.73 | — | 86.45 81.95–90.96 80.62–92.29 | — | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.13 9.27–14.99 8.39–15.87 | 11.00 | 14.00 11.05–16.94 10.13–17.86 | 16.00 | 26.13 20.32–31.93 18.52–33.73 | 27.00 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.82–3.24 0.48–3.58 | 1.00 | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.43–3.42 | 1.00 | 3.96 1.59–6.33 0.91–7.01 | 2.00 | 42% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.27–3.38 1.00–3.65 | 3.00 | 2.38 1.26–3.50 0.97–3.79 | 0.00 | 4.70 2.52–6.88 1.96–7.44 | 3.00 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.32 1.90–4.73 1.52–5.12 | 2.00 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 3.00 | 6.23 3.26–9.19 2.44–10.02 | 5.00 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+