Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Simone Sozza
Goals
30%
27%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.392.50safe0.14–2.070.53–2.250.67–4.32safer0.00–2.330.28–2.500.17–4.83actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
33%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.684.468.14safe1.82–5.532.75–6.174.57–11.70safer1.32–6.032.28–6.633.61–12.67actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6912.9324.62safe7.98–15.399.55–16.3117.54–31.70safer6.95–16.428.62–17.2415.57–33.66actual5.0016.0021.00
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.818.3217.14safe6.30–11.336.02–10.6212.32–21.95safer5.43–12.205.22–11.4210.66–23.61actual4.0012.0016.00
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.687.42safe2.15–5.322.26–5.094.42–10.41safer1.62–5.861.78–5.583.40–11.44actual1.005.006.00
Corners
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.624.789.40safe2.41–6.822.80–6.765.22–13.58safer1.82–7.422.27–7.304.08–14.72actual1.006.007.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction40.3860.83safe34.07–46.7054.51–67.15safer32.47–48.3052.91–68.75actual44.0056.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction360529889safe295–425464–593759–1018safer277–443446–611723–1054actual4505641014
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction79.5387.37safe75.32–83.7582.86–91.87safer74.01–85.0581.53–93.20
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9611.8323.78safe9.10–14.828.88–14.7717.98–29.59safer8.22–15.707.96–15.6916.18–31.39actual6.009.0015.00
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.292.96safe0.46–2.880.13–2.450.59–5.33safer0.11–3.220.00–2.780.00–6.01actual6.000.006.00
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.653.31safe0.60–2.710.53–2.771.14–5.49safer0.33–2.990.24–3.060.57–6.05actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.232.475.70safe1.82–4.640.92–4.032.73–8.67safer1.43–5.030.49–4.461.91–9.49actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 1.00 | 1.39 0.53–2.25 0.28–2.50 | 2.00 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.17–4.83 | 3.00 | 30% 27% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.68 1.82–5.53 1.32–6.03 | 2.00 | 4.46 2.75–6.17 2.28–6.63 | 5.00 | 8.14 4.57–11.70 3.61–12.67 | 7.00 | 33% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.98–15.39 6.95–16.42 | 5.00 | 12.93 9.55–16.31 8.62–17.24 | 16.00 | 24.62 17.54–31.70 15.57–33.66 | 21.00 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.81 6.30–11.33 5.43–12.20 | 4.00 | 8.32 6.02–10.62 5.22–11.42 | 12.00 | 17.14 12.32–21.95 10.66–23.61 | 16.00 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 2.15–5.32 1.62–5.86 | 1.00 | 3.68 2.26–5.09 1.78–5.58 | 5.00 | 7.42 4.42–10.41 3.40–11.44 | 6.00 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.62 2.41–6.82 1.82–7.42 | 1.00 | 4.78 2.80–6.76 2.27–7.30 | 6.00 | 9.40 5.22–13.58 4.08–14.72 | 7.00 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Possession % | 40.38 34.07–46.70 32.47–48.30 | 44.00 | 60.83 54.51–67.15 52.91–68.75 | 56.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 360 295–425 277–443 | 450 | 529 464–593 446–611 | 564 | 889 759–1018 723–1054 | 1014 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.53 75.32–83.75 74.01–85.05 | — | 87.37 82.86–91.87 81.53–93.20 | — | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.10–14.82 8.22–15.70 | 6.00 | 11.83 8.88–14.77 7.96–15.69 | 9.00 | 23.78 17.98–29.59 16.18–31.39 | 15.00 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.46–2.88 0.11–3.22 | 6.00 | 1.29 0.13–2.45 0.00–2.78 | 0.00 | 2.96 0.59–5.33 0.00–6.01 | 6.00 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.71 0.33–2.99 | 2.00 | 1.65 0.53–2.77 0.24–3.06 | 1.00 | 3.31 1.14–5.49 0.57–6.05 | 3.00 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.23 1.82–4.64 1.43–5.03 | 4.00 | 2.47 0.92–4.03 0.49–4.46 | 1.00 | 5.70 2.73–8.67 1.91–9.49 | 5.00 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+