Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Samuel Barrott
Goals
44%
28%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.310.982.29safe0.35–2.270.12–1.840.47–4.11safer0.09–2.530.00–2.090.00–4.62actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.717.59safe2.02–5.732.00–5.424.02–11.15safer1.52–6.231.53–5.883.06–12.12actual3.002.005.00
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2312.8125.05safe8.53–15.949.44–16.1917.97–32.13safer7.50–16.978.50–17.1216.00–34.09actual20.008.0028.00
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.407.5515.95safe5.88–10.925.25–9.8511.13–20.77safer5.02–11.784.45–10.659.47–22.43actual8.005.0013.00
Blocked shots
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.115.94safe1.24–4.411.70–4.532.94–8.94safer0.71–4.951.21–5.011.92–9.96actual4.001.005.00
Corners
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.824.489.30safe2.61–7.022.50–6.455.11–13.48safer2.02–7.621.96–6.993.98–14.61actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction53.4644.69safe47.14–59.7838.37–51.01safer45.55–61.3836.78–52.61actual54.0046.00
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction467384851safe401–532319–449721–980safer384–550302–466685–1016actual475411886
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction84.0377.30safe79.81–88.2572.79–81.81safer78.51–89.5571.46–83.14
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8915.6027.49safe9.03–14.7412.66–18.5521.69–33.29safer8.14–15.6311.74–19.4619.88–35.09actual9.0023.0032.00
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.363.05safe0.47–2.890.20–2.530.67–5.42safer0.13–3.240.00–2.860.00–6.10actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
33%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.923.52safe0.55–2.660.80–3.041.34–5.70safer0.27–2.930.51–3.330.78–6.26actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.070.09safe0.00–0.180.00–0.260.00–0.44safer0.00–0.330.00–0.400.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.025.47safe1.03–3.861.47–4.582.50–8.43safer0.64–4.251.04–5.011.68–9.26actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.27 0.09–2.53 | 2.00 | 0.98 0.12–1.84 0.00–2.09 | 0.00 | 2.29 0.47–4.11 0.00–4.62 | 2.00 | 44% 28% 28% |
| Shots on target | 3.88 2.02–5.73 1.52–6.23 | 3.00 | 3.71 2.00–5.42 1.53–5.88 | 2.00 | 7.59 4.02–11.15 3.06–12.12 | 5.00 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Total shots | 12.23 8.53–15.94 7.50–16.97 | 20.00 | 12.81 9.44–16.19 8.50–17.12 | 8.00 | 25.05 17.97–32.13 16.00–34.09 | 28.00 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 8.40 5.88–10.92 5.02–11.78 | 8.00 | 7.55 5.25–9.85 4.45–10.65 | 5.00 | 15.95 11.13–20.77 9.47–22.43 | 13.00 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 2.83 1.24–4.41 0.71–4.95 | 4.00 | 3.11 1.70–4.53 1.21–5.01 | 1.00 | 5.94 2.94–8.94 1.92–9.96 | 5.00 | 37% 17% 46% |
| Corners | 4.82 2.61–7.02 2.02–7.62 | 5.00 | 4.48 2.50–6.45 1.96–6.99 | 2.00 | 9.30 5.11–13.48 3.98–14.61 | 7.00 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Possession % | 53.46 47.14–59.78 45.55–61.38 | 54.00 | 44.69 38.37–51.01 36.78–52.61 | 46.00 | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 467 401–532 384–550 | 475 | 384 319–449 302–466 | 411 | 851 721–980 685–1016 | 886 | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.03 79.81–88.25 78.51–89.55 | — | 77.30 72.79–81.81 71.46–83.14 | — | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 11.89 9.03–14.74 8.14–15.63 | 9.00 | 15.60 12.66–18.55 11.74–19.46 | 23.00 | 27.49 21.69–33.29 19.88–35.09 | 32.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.68 0.47–2.89 0.13–3.24 | 0.00 | 1.36 0.20–2.53 0.00–2.86 | 0.00 | 3.05 0.67–5.42 0.00–6.10 | 0.00 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.27–2.93 | 2.00 | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | 4.00 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.78–6.26 | 6.00 | 33% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.03–3.86 0.64–4.25 | 3.00 | 3.02 1.47–4.58 1.04–5.01 | 1.00 | 5.47 2.50–8.43 1.68–9.26 | 4.00 | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.