Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
26%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.472.45safe0.02–1.960.61–2.320.63–4.28safer0.00–2.210.38–2.550.15–4.76
Shots on target
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.784.508.29safe1.92–5.652.76–6.254.68–11.89safer1.43–6.132.30–6.713.73–12.85
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2213.0325.25safe8.30–16.159.47–16.5917.76–32.74safer7.20–17.248.51–17.5515.71–34.79
Shots in box
44%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.727.7715.49safe4.78–10.665.09–10.459.86–21.11safer3.95–11.494.35–11.198.30–22.68
Blocked shots
46%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.986.25safe1.38–5.151.33–4.632.71–9.78safer0.84–5.690.84–5.131.68–10.82
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.804.579.37safe2.58–7.012.57–6.575.15–13.58safer2.01–7.582.04–7.104.05–14.69
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.2656.29safe36.47–50.0549.51–63.08safer34.80–51.7247.84–64.75
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction383499883safe316–451433–566749–1016safer298–469415–583713–1052
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction67.1976.38safe63.16–71.2272.06–80.71safer61.87–72.5170.75–82.02
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6312.5827.22safe11.80–17.479.64–15.5321.43–33.00safer11.04–18.238.89–16.2819.93–34.50
Offsides
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.492.95safe0.30–2.620.40–2.590.70–5.20safer0.00–2.920.11–2.870.11–5.79
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.954.05safe1.06–3.160.82–3.071.87–6.23safer0.79–3.420.52–3.371.32–6.79
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.110.25safe0.00–0.300.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.430.00–0.88
GK saves
45%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.685.60safe1.48–4.361.12–4.242.61–8.59safer1.10–4.740.70–4.661.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.47 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.55 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 25% 26% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.92–5.65 1.43–6.13 | 4.50 2.76–6.25 2.30–6.71 | 8.29 4.68–11.89 3.73–12.85 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 12.22 8.30–16.15 7.20–17.24 | 13.03 9.47–16.59 8.51–17.55 | 25.25 17.76–32.74 15.71–34.79 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 7.72 4.78–10.66 3.95–11.49 | 7.77 5.09–10.45 4.35–11.19 | 15.49 9.86–21.11 8.30–22.68 | 44% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.38–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 2.98 1.33–4.63 0.84–5.13 | 6.25 2.71–9.78 1.68–10.82 | 46% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.80 2.58–7.01 2.01–7.58 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.04–7.10 | 9.37 5.15–13.58 4.05–14.69 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 43.26 36.47–50.05 34.80–51.72 | 56.29 49.51–63.08 47.84–64.75 | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 383 316–451 298–469 | 499 433–566 415–583 | 883 749–1016 713–1052 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.19 63.16–71.22 61.87–72.51 | 76.38 72.06–80.71 70.75–82.02 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 14.63 11.80–17.47 11.04–18.23 | 12.58 9.64–15.53 8.89–16.28 | 27.22 21.43–33.00 19.93–34.50 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 1.49 0.40–2.59 0.11–2.87 | 2.95 0.70–5.20 0.11–5.79 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.79–3.42 | 1.95 0.82–3.07 0.52–3.37 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.32–6.79 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.48–4.36 1.10–4.74 | 2.68 1.12–4.24 0.70–4.66 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.80–9.41 | 45% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+