Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Juxhin Xhaja
Goals
61%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.930.922.85safe0.97–2.890.06–1.781.03–4.67safer0.71–3.150.00–2.030.52–5.18actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.623.217.84safe2.77–6.481.50–4.924.27–11.40safer2.27–6.981.04–5.393.31–12.37actual3.001.004.00
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.439.9024.34safe10.73–18.146.52–13.2817.25–31.42safer9.70–19.175.59–14.2115.29–33.38actual18.007.0025.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction9.065.6214.68safe6.54–11.583.31–7.929.86–19.49safer5.68–12.442.52–8.718.20–21.15actual10.003.0013.00
Blocked shots
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.305.88safe1.99–5.160.89–3.722.88–8.88safer1.46–5.690.40–4.201.86–9.90actual3.001.004.00
Corners
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.283.558.83safe3.08–7.491.57–5.534.65–13.02safer2.48–8.081.04–6.073.52–14.15actual7.003.0010.00
Possession %
75%
22%
homeawayprediction56.1744.71safe49.85–62.4938.39–51.03safer48.25–64.0836.79–52.62actual68.0032.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction515379895safe450–581315–444765–1025safer433–598297–461730–1060actual7033211024
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction83.6876.27safe79.47–87.9071.76–80.78safer78.17–89.2070.43–82.11
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3716.1928.56safe9.51–15.2313.24–19.1322.75–34.36safer8.63–16.1112.32–20.0520.95–36.16actual8.0013.0021.00
Offsides
51%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.313.19safe0.67–3.090.15–2.470.82–5.56safer0.33–3.430.00–2.810.14–6.24actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.314.10safe0.73–2.851.19–3.431.92–6.28safer0.46–3.120.90–3.721.36–6.84actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.110.15safe0.00–0.200.00–0.300.00–0.50safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
15%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.043.435.47safe0.63–3.451.88–4.992.51–8.44safer0.24–3.841.45–5.421.68–9.26actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 0.97–2.89 0.71–3.15 | 2.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 0.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 2.00 | 61% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 4.62 2.77–6.48 2.27–6.98 | 3.00 | 3.21 1.50–4.92 1.04–5.39 | 1.00 | 7.84 4.27–11.40 3.31–12.37 | 4.00 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.43 10.73–18.14 9.70–19.17 | 18.00 | 9.90 6.52–13.28 5.59–14.21 | 7.00 | 24.34 17.25–31.42 15.29–33.38 | 25.00 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.06 6.54–11.58 5.68–12.44 | 10.00 | 5.62 3.31–7.92 2.52–8.71 | 3.00 | 14.68 9.86–19.49 8.20–21.15 | 13.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.99–5.16 1.46–5.69 | 3.00 | 2.30 0.89–3.72 0.40–4.20 | 1.00 | 5.88 2.88–8.88 1.86–9.90 | 4.00 | 62% 15% 23% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.08–7.49 2.48–8.08 | 7.00 | 3.55 1.57–5.53 1.04–6.07 | 3.00 | 8.83 4.65–13.02 3.52–14.15 | 10.00 | 66% 22% |
| Possession % | 56.17 49.85–62.49 48.25–64.08 | 68.00 | 44.71 38.39–51.03 36.79–52.62 | 32.00 | — | — | 75% 22% |
| Passes | 515 450–581 433–598 | 703 | 379 315–444 297–461 | 321 | 895 765–1025 730–1060 | 1024 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.68 79.47–87.90 78.17–89.20 | — | 76.27 71.76–80.78 70.43–82.11 | — | — | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 12.37 9.51–15.23 8.63–16.11 | 8.00 | 16.19 13.24–19.13 12.32–20.05 | 13.00 | 28.56 22.75–34.36 20.95–36.16 | 21.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.33–3.43 | 0.00 | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.81 | 1.00 | 3.19 0.82–5.56 0.14–6.24 | 1.00 | 51% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.73–2.85 0.46–3.12 | 2.00 | 2.31 1.19–3.43 0.90–3.72 | 1.00 | 4.10 1.92–6.28 1.36–6.84 | 3.00 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.04 0.63–3.45 0.24–3.84 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.42 | 1.00 | 5.47 2.51–8.44 1.68–9.26 | 2.00 | 20% 15% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+