UEFA Nations League·League D - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League D - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Menelaos Antoniou
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.062.63safe0.61–2.530.20–1.920.81–4.45safer0.35–2.790.00–2.160.30–4.96actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.228.43safe2.35–6.062.51–5.934.86–11.99safer1.85–6.562.04–6.403.90–12.96actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9111.2025.11safe10.20–17.617.82–14.5818.03–32.19safer9.17–18.646.89–15.5116.07–34.15actual9.009.0018.00
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction8.326.2114.53safe5.80–10.843.91–8.519.71–19.35safer4.94–11.703.11–9.318.05–21.01actual4.007.0011.00
Blocked shots
50%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.352.806.15safe1.76–4.931.39–4.223.15–9.15safer1.23–5.470.90–4.712.13–10.17actual3.002.005.00
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.083.678.74safe2.87–7.281.69–5.644.56–12.92safer2.28–7.881.15–6.183.43–14.06actual0.002.002.00
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction56.2846.91safe49.96–62.5940.60–53.23safer48.36–64.1939.00–54.83actual51.0049.00
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction525399924safe459–590335–464794–1054safer442–608317–481759–1089actual431418849
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction77.7974.59safe73.58–82.0170.08–79.09safer72.27–83.3168.75–80.42
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9212.3526.27safe11.06–16.789.40–15.2920.47–32.07safer10.18–17.668.48–16.2118.66–33.87actual15.0016.0031.00
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.873.99safe0.90–3.320.71–3.041.61–6.36safer0.56–3.670.38–3.370.94–7.04actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.143.95safe0.75–2.861.02–3.261.77–6.13safer0.48–3.140.73–3.551.21–6.69actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.225.82safe1.19–4.021.66–4.772.85–8.79safer0.80–4.411.23–5.202.03–9.61actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.61–2.53 0.35–2.79 | 1.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.16 | 1.00 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.30–4.96 | 2.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.21 2.35–6.06 1.85–6.56 | 3.00 | 4.22 2.51–5.93 2.04–6.40 | 4.00 | 8.43 4.86–11.99 3.90–12.96 | 7.00 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.91 10.20–17.61 9.17–18.64 | 9.00 | 11.20 7.82–14.58 6.89–15.51 | 9.00 | 25.11 18.03–32.19 16.07–34.15 | 18.00 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.80–10.84 4.94–11.70 | 4.00 | 6.21 3.91–8.51 3.11–9.31 | 7.00 | 14.53 9.71–19.35 8.05–21.01 | 11.00 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.76–4.93 1.23–5.47 | 3.00 | 2.80 1.39–4.22 0.90–4.71 | 2.00 | 6.15 3.15–9.15 2.13–10.17 | 5.00 | 50% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.28 2.28–7.88 | 0.00 | 3.67 1.69–5.64 1.15–6.18 | 2.00 | 8.74 4.56–12.92 3.43–14.06 | 2.00 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 56.28 49.96–62.59 48.36–64.19 | 51.00 | 46.91 40.60–53.23 39.00–54.83 | 49.00 | — | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 525 459–590 442–608 | 431 | 399 335–464 317–481 | 418 | 924 794–1054 759–1089 | 849 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.79 73.58–82.01 72.27–83.31 | — | 74.59 70.08–79.09 68.75–80.42 | — | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 13.92 11.06–16.78 10.18–17.66 | 15.00 | 12.35 9.40–15.29 8.48–16.21 | 16.00 | 26.27 20.47–32.07 18.66–33.87 | 31.00 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.90–3.32 0.56–3.67 | 3.00 | 1.87 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | 0.00 | 3.99 1.61–6.36 0.94–7.04 | 3.00 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.75–2.86 0.48–3.14 | 1.00 | 2.14 1.02–3.26 0.73–3.55 | 3.00 | 3.95 1.77–6.13 1.21–6.69 | 4.00 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.19–4.02 0.80–4.41 | 3.00 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 2.00 | 5.82 2.85–8.79 2.03–9.61 | 5.00 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.