UEFA Nations League·League D - 4·
UEFA Nations League·League D - 4·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.192.52safe0.37–2.310.33–2.040.70–4.35safer0.12–2.560.10–2.270.22–4.83
Shots on target
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.353.647.99safe2.49–6.221.90–5.384.39–11.60safer2.00–6.711.43–5.853.43–12.55
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0911.0424.13safe9.17–17.027.48–14.6016.64–31.62safer8.08–18.116.52–15.5614.59–33.67
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.367.2714.63safe4.42–10.304.59–9.959.01–20.26safer3.59–11.133.86–10.697.44–21.82
Blocked shots
51%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.675.93safe1.38–5.141.02–4.322.39–9.46safer0.83–5.680.52–4.811.36–10.50
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.034.269.29safe2.81–7.242.26–6.265.07–13.50safer2.24–7.811.72–6.793.97–14.61
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.3749.74safe43.58–57.1742.96–56.53safer41.91–58.8341.29–58.20
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction457424881safe390–524357–490747–1014safer372–542340–508711–1050
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction68.5372.14safe64.50–72.5667.81–76.46safer63.21–73.8566.50–77.77
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6013.5328.13safe11.76–17.4410.58–16.4722.35–33.91safer11.01–18.209.83–17.2220.84–35.41
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.653.39safe0.58–2.900.56–2.751.14–5.64safer0.28–3.200.27–3.030.55–6.23
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.201.994.18safe1.15–3.250.86–3.122.01–6.36safer0.88–3.510.57–3.411.45–6.92
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.100.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.440.00–0.420.00–0.86
GK saves
33%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.915.33safe0.99–3.861.35–4.462.34–8.32safer0.60–4.250.92–4.891.52–9.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.19 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.27 | 2.52 0.70–4.35 0.22–4.83 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.35 2.49–6.22 2.00–6.71 | 3.64 1.90–5.38 1.43–5.85 | 7.99 4.39–11.60 3.43–12.55 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.09 9.17–17.02 8.08–18.11 | 11.04 7.48–14.60 6.52–15.56 | 24.13 16.64–31.62 14.59–33.67 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 7.36 4.42–10.30 3.59–11.13 | 7.27 4.59–9.95 3.86–10.69 | 14.63 9.01–20.26 7.44–21.82 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.14 0.83–5.68 | 2.67 1.02–4.32 0.52–4.81 | 5.93 2.39–9.46 1.36–10.50 | 51% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.81–7.24 2.24–7.81 | 4.26 2.26–6.26 1.72–6.79 | 9.29 5.07–13.50 3.97–14.61 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 50.37 43.58–57.17 41.91–58.83 | 49.74 42.96–56.53 41.29–58.20 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 457 390–524 372–542 | 424 357–490 340–508 | 881 747–1014 711–1050 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.53 64.50–72.56 63.21–73.85 | 72.14 67.81–76.46 66.50–77.77 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 14.60 11.76–17.44 11.01–18.20 | 13.53 10.58–16.47 9.83–17.22 | 28.13 22.35–33.91 20.84–35.41 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.65 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.03 | 3.39 1.14–5.64 0.55–6.23 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.25 0.88–3.51 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 4.18 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 5.33 2.34–8.32 1.52–9.13 | 33% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.