UEFA Nations League·League A - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League A - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Szymon Marciniak
Goals
16%
21%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction0.861.962.81safe0.00–1.821.10–2.820.99–4.63safer0.00–2.080.85–3.060.48–5.14actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.375.649.01safe1.52–5.233.94–7.355.45–12.58safer1.02–5.733.47–7.824.48–13.55actual6.008.0014.00
Total shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9515.0525.00safe6.25–13.6511.67–18.4317.92–32.08safer5.21–14.6810.74–19.3615.96–34.04actual11.0025.0036.00
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction6.7510.1916.94safe4.23–9.267.89–12.4912.12–21.75safer3.37–10.137.09–13.2910.46–23.41actual10.0015.0025.00
Blocked shots
22%
13%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.664.176.83safe1.08–4.242.76–5.593.83–9.83safer0.54–4.782.27–6.072.81–10.85actual1.0010.0011.00
Corners
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.755.529.27safe1.55–5.963.54–7.505.09–13.46safer0.95–6.553.01–8.043.96–14.59actual3.004.007.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.2458.97safe32.92–45.5552.65–65.29safer31.32–47.1551.05–66.89actual33.0067.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction386551937safe320–451487–616807–1067safer303–469469–633772–1102actual303636939
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction68.4475.58safe64.22–72.6571.07–80.08safer62.92–73.9569.74–81.41
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9810.4021.37safe8.12–13.837.45–13.3415.57–27.18safer7.23–14.726.53–14.2613.77–28.98actual7.0010.0017.00
Offsides
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.474.32safe0.65–3.071.30–3.631.95–6.70safer0.30–3.410.97–3.961.27–7.37actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.794.00safe1.15–3.270.67–2.911.83–6.18safer0.88–3.540.38–3.201.26–6.74actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.040.10safe0.00–0.210.00–0.240.00–0.45safer0.00–0.360.00–0.380.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.395.93safe2.13–4.960.84–3.942.96–8.90safer1.74–5.340.40–4.382.14–9.72actual6.005.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.86 0.00–1.82 0.00–2.08 | 1.00 | 1.96 1.10–2.82 0.85–3.06 | 2.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.48–5.14 | 3.00 | 16% 21% 63% |
| Shots on target | 3.37 1.52–5.23 1.02–5.73 | 6.00 | 5.64 3.94–7.35 3.47–7.82 | 8.00 | 9.01 5.45–12.58 4.48–13.55 | 14.00 | 17% 72% |
| Total shots | 9.95 6.25–13.65 5.21–14.68 | 11.00 | 15.05 11.67–18.43 10.74–19.36 | 25.00 | 25.00 17.92–32.08 15.96–34.04 | 36.00 | 82% |
| Shots in box | 6.75 4.23–9.26 3.37–10.13 | 10.00 | 10.19 7.89–12.49 7.09–13.29 | 15.00 | 16.94 12.12–21.75 10.46–23.41 | 25.00 | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 2.66 1.08–4.24 0.54–4.78 | 1.00 | 4.17 2.76–5.59 2.27–6.07 | 10.00 | 6.83 3.83–9.83 2.81–10.85 | 11.00 | 22% 13% 65% |
| Corners | 3.75 1.55–5.96 0.95–6.55 | 3.00 | 5.52 3.54–7.50 3.01–8.04 | 4.00 | 9.27 5.09–13.46 3.96–14.59 | 7.00 | 23% 66% |
| Possession % | 39.24 32.92–45.55 31.32–47.15 | 33.00 | 58.97 52.65–65.29 51.05–66.89 | 67.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 386 320–451 303–469 | 303 | 551 487–616 469–633 | 636 | 937 807–1067 772–1102 | 939 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.44 64.22–72.65 62.92–73.95 | — | 75.58 71.07–80.08 69.74–81.41 | — | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 10.98 8.12–13.83 7.23–14.72 | 7.00 | 10.40 7.45–13.34 6.53–14.26 | 10.00 | 21.37 15.57–27.18 13.77–28.98 | 17.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.65–3.07 0.30–3.41 | 4.00 | 2.47 1.30–3.63 0.97–3.96 | 2.00 | 4.32 1.95–6.70 1.27–7.37 | 6.00 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.15–3.27 0.88–3.54 | 1.00 | 1.79 0.67–2.91 0.38–3.20 | 1.00 | 4.00 1.83–6.18 1.26–6.74 | 2.00 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.04 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.13–4.96 1.74–5.34 | 6.00 | 2.39 0.84–3.94 0.40–4.38 | 5.00 | 5.93 2.96–8.90 2.14–9.72 | 11.00 | 60% 15% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+