Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Willy Delajod
Goals
64%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.080.912.99safe1.12–3.040.05–1.771.16–4.81safer0.86–3.300.00–2.010.66–5.31actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.313.7210.03safe4.46–8.172.01–5.436.47–13.60safer3.96–8.671.54–5.905.50–14.56actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction16.289.1325.41safe12.57–19.985.75–12.5118.33–32.49safer11.54–21.014.82–13.4416.36–34.45actual20.0010.0030.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction12.966.4919.45safe10.44–15.474.19–8.8014.63–24.27safer9.58–16.343.40–9.5912.97–25.93actual12.005.0017.00
Blocked shots
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.912.807.71safe3.33–6.501.38–4.214.71–10.71safer2.80–7.030.89–4.703.69–11.73actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.523.9210.44safe4.32–8.731.94–5.896.25–14.62safer3.72–9.321.40–6.435.12–15.75actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.4143.08safe51.09–63.7236.76–49.40safer49.49–65.3235.17–51.00actual62.0038.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction562398961safe497–628334–463831–1091safer480–645316–481796–1126actual579355934
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction73.9567.74safe69.74–78.1763.23–72.24safer68.44–79.4761.90–73.58
Fouls
25%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5712.1921.76safe6.72–12.439.25–15.1415.96–27.57safer5.83–13.328.33–16.0514.16–29.37actual10.0017.0027.00
Offsides
41%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.873.84safe0.76–3.180.71–3.031.47–6.21safer0.42–3.520.38–3.370.79–6.89actual5.003.008.00
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.273.87safe0.55–2.661.15–3.391.70–6.05safer0.27–2.930.86–3.681.13–6.61actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
18%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.993.645.63safe0.57–3.402.09–5.202.66–8.60safer0.18–3.791.66–5.631.84–9.42actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.08 1.12–3.04 0.86–3.30 | 2.00 | 0.91 0.05–1.77 0.00–2.01 | 0.00 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.66–5.31 | 2.00 | 64% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.31 4.46–8.17 3.96–8.67 | 4.00 | 3.72 2.01–5.43 1.54–5.90 | 3.00 | 10.03 6.47–13.60 5.50–14.56 | 7.00 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.28 12.57–19.98 11.54–21.01 | 20.00 | 9.13 5.75–12.51 4.82–13.44 | 10.00 | 25.41 18.33–32.49 16.36–34.45 | 30.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 12.96 10.44–15.47 9.58–16.34 | 12.00 | 6.49 4.19–8.80 3.40–9.59 | 5.00 | 19.45 14.63–24.27 12.97–25.93 | 17.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.91 3.33–6.50 2.80–7.03 | 7.00 | 2.80 1.38–4.21 0.89–4.70 | 3.00 | 7.71 4.71–10.71 3.69–11.73 | 10.00 | 72% 17% |
| Corners | 6.52 4.32–8.73 3.72–9.32 | 2.00 | 3.92 1.94–5.89 1.40–6.43 | 4.00 | 10.44 6.25–14.62 5.12–15.75 | 6.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 57.41 51.09–63.72 49.49–65.32 | 62.00 | 43.08 36.76–49.40 35.17–51.00 | 38.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 562 497–628 480–645 | 579 | 398 334–463 316–481 | 355 | 961 831–1091 796–1126 | 934 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.95 69.74–78.17 68.44–79.47 | — | 67.74 63.23–72.24 61.90–73.58 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 9.57 6.72–12.43 5.83–13.32 | 10.00 | 12.19 9.25–15.14 8.33–16.05 | 17.00 | 21.76 15.96–27.57 14.16–29.37 | 27.00 | 25% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.76–3.18 0.42–3.52 | 5.00 | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.38–3.37 | 3.00 | 3.84 1.47–6.21 0.79–6.89 | 8.00 | 41% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.27–2.93 | 1.00 | 2.27 1.15–3.39 0.86–3.68 | 2.00 | 3.87 1.70–6.05 1.13–6.61 | 3.00 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 1.99 0.57–3.40 0.18–3.79 | 3.00 | 3.64 2.09–5.20 1.66–5.63 | 2.00 | 5.63 2.66–8.60 1.84–9.42 | 5.00 | 18% 14% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.