Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
24%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.702.89safe0.22–2.150.85–2.561.06–4.71safer0.00–2.400.62–2.790.59–5.19
Shots on target
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.955.239.18safe2.09–5.813.49–6.975.57–12.78safer1.60–6.303.02–7.444.62–13.74
Total shots
29%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4814.9527.43safe8.56–16.4111.38–18.5119.94–34.92safer7.47–17.5010.42–19.4717.89–36.97
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8210.1819.01safe5.88–11.767.50–12.8713.38–24.63safer5.05–12.596.77–13.6011.82–26.20
Blocked shots
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.734.488.21safe1.84–5.612.83–6.144.67–11.74safer1.30–6.152.34–6.633.64–12.78
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.985.2110.18safe2.77–7.193.21–7.215.97–14.40safer2.19–7.772.67–7.744.86–15.50
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction42.9157.21safe36.12–49.7050.42–63.99safer34.45–51.3748.75–65.66
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction411539949safe343–478472–605816–1083safer325–496455–623780–1119
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction63.4975.27safe59.46–67.5270.94–79.59safer58.17–68.8169.63–80.90
Fouls
67%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction12.059.4721.53safe9.21–14.896.53–12.4215.74–27.31safer8.46–15.655.78–13.1714.24–28.81
Offsides
45%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.044.35safe1.14–3.470.95–3.142.10–6.60safer0.84–3.770.66–3.431.51–7.19
Yellow cards
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.683.58safe0.86–2.950.55–2.811.40–5.76safer0.59–3.220.26–3.100.85–6.32
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.380.00–0.77
GK saves
53%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.462.796.25safe2.03–4.901.23–4.343.26–9.24safer1.64–5.290.81–4.772.45–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.70 0.85–2.56 0.62–2.79 | 2.89 1.06–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 27% 24% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.95 2.09–5.81 1.60–6.30 | 5.23 3.49–6.97 3.02–7.44 | 9.18 5.57–12.78 4.62–13.74 | 28% 60% |
| Total shots | 12.48 8.56–16.41 7.47–17.50 | 14.95 11.38–18.51 10.42–19.47 | 27.43 19.94–34.92 17.89–36.97 | 29% 65% |
| Shots in box | 8.82 5.88–11.76 5.05–12.59 | 10.18 7.50–12.87 6.77–13.60 | 19.01 13.38–24.63 11.82–26.20 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.84–5.61 1.30–6.15 | 4.48 2.83–6.14 2.34–6.63 | 8.21 4.67–11.74 3.64–12.78 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Corners | 4.98 2.77–7.19 2.19–7.77 | 5.21 3.21–7.21 2.67–7.74 | 10.18 5.97–14.40 4.86–15.50 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 42.91 36.12–49.70 34.45–51.37 | 57.21 50.42–63.99 48.75–65.66 | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 411 343–478 325–496 | 539 472–605 455–623 | 949 816–1083 780–1119 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.49 59.46–67.52 58.17–68.81 | 75.27 70.94–79.59 69.63–80.90 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 12.05 9.21–14.89 8.46–15.65 | 9.47 6.53–12.42 5.78–13.17 | 21.53 15.74–27.31 14.24–28.81 | 67% 25% |
| Offsides | 2.31 1.14–3.47 0.84–3.77 | 2.04 0.95–3.14 0.66–3.43 | 4.35 2.10–6.60 1.51–7.19 | 45% 20% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.46 2.03–4.90 1.64–5.29 | 2.79 1.23–4.34 0.81–4.77 | 6.25 3.26–9.24 2.45–10.05 | 53% 16% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.