Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Nick Walsh
Goals
32%
27%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.362.54safe0.21–2.140.50–2.220.72–4.36safer0.00–2.400.26–2.470.21–4.87actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.654.458.10safe1.79–5.502.74–6.164.53–11.66safer1.29–6.002.27–6.623.57–12.63actual6.001.007.00
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6212.2722.89safe6.92–14.338.89–15.6515.81–29.97safer5.89–15.367.96–16.5813.85–31.94actual11.006.0017.00
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.508.2315.73safe4.99–10.025.93–10.5310.91–20.55safer4.12–10.885.13–11.339.25–22.21actual8.005.0013.00
Blocked shots
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.115.86safe1.17–4.341.69–4.522.87–8.86safer0.64–4.881.20–5.011.84–9.88actual2.002.004.00
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.419.40safe2.78–7.192.44–6.395.22–13.59safer2.19–7.791.90–6.934.09–14.72actual5.001.006.00
Possession %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction53.1948.02safe46.87–59.5141.70–54.33safer45.28–61.1140.10–55.93actual52.0048.00
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction451422872safe385–516357–486742–1002safer368–533340–504707–1037actual513474987
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction68.9469.52safe64.73–73.1665.01–74.03safer63.43–74.4663.68–75.36
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4511.3822.83safe8.59–14.318.43–14.3217.03–28.63safer7.71–15.197.51–15.2415.22–30.44actual21.0015.0036.00
Offsides
33%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.582.95safe0.16–2.580.42–2.740.58–5.32safer0.00–2.930.08–3.070.00–6.00actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.833.92safe1.03–3.150.71–2.951.74–6.09safer0.76–3.420.42–3.241.18–6.66actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.832.795.62safe1.42–4.251.23–4.342.65–8.59safer1.03–4.640.80–4.771.83–9.41actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 3.00 | 1.36 0.50–2.22 0.26–2.47 | 1.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 4.00 | 32% 27% 41% |
| Shots on target | 3.65 1.79–5.50 1.29–6.00 | 6.00 | 4.45 2.74–6.16 2.27–6.62 | 1.00 | 8.10 4.53–11.66 3.57–12.63 | 7.00 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 10.62 6.92–14.33 5.89–15.36 | 11.00 | 12.27 8.89–15.65 7.96–16.58 | 6.00 | 22.89 15.81–29.97 13.85–31.94 | 17.00 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.50 4.99–10.02 4.12–10.88 | 8.00 | 8.23 5.93–10.53 5.13–11.33 | 5.00 | 15.73 10.91–20.55 9.25–22.21 | 13.00 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 2.76 1.17–4.34 0.64–4.88 | 2.00 | 3.11 1.69–4.52 1.20–5.01 | 2.00 | 5.86 2.87–8.86 1.84–9.88 | 4.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.78–7.19 2.19–7.79 | 5.00 | 4.41 2.44–6.39 1.90–6.93 | 1.00 | 9.40 5.22–13.59 4.09–14.72 | 6.00 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 53.19 46.87–59.51 45.28–61.11 | 52.00 | 48.02 41.70–54.33 40.10–55.93 | 48.00 | — | — | 60% 35% |
| Passes | 451 385–516 368–533 | 513 | 422 357–486 340–504 | 474 | 872 742–1002 707–1037 | 987 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.94 64.73–73.16 63.43–74.46 | — | 69.52 65.01–74.03 63.68–75.36 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 11.45 8.59–14.31 7.71–15.19 | 21.00 | 11.38 8.43–14.32 7.51–15.24 | 15.00 | 22.83 17.03–28.63 15.22–30.44 | 36.00 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.16–2.58 0.00–2.93 | 2.00 | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.08–3.07 | 1.00 | 2.95 0.58–5.32 0.00–6.00 | 3.00 | 33% 24% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.03–3.15 0.76–3.42 | 2.00 | 1.83 0.71–2.95 0.42–3.24 | 2.00 | 3.92 1.74–6.09 1.18–6.66 | 4.00 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.42–4.25 1.03–4.64 | 0.00 | 2.79 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.77 | 3.00 | 5.62 2.65–8.59 1.83–9.41 | 3.00 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.