Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Chris Kavanagh
Goals
40%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.302.71safe0.45–2.380.44–2.160.89–4.54safer0.19–2.640.19–2.410.38–5.04actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.533.479.00safe3.68–7.391.76–5.185.44–12.56safer3.18–7.891.29–5.644.47–13.53actual5.001.006.00
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6310.5525.18safe10.93–18.337.17–13.9318.10–32.26safer9.90–19.366.24–14.8616.13–34.22actual16.008.0024.00
Shots in box
65%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.507.4416.94safe6.98–12.025.14–9.7412.12–21.76safer6.12–12.884.34–10.5410.46–23.42actual8.005.0013.00
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.026.89safe2.29–5.461.60–4.433.89–9.89safer1.76–5.991.12–4.922.87–10.91actual2.001.003.00
Corners
71%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.464.1910.65safe4.25–8.662.21–6.176.47–14.83safer3.66–9.261.68–6.715.33–15.96actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.2541.85safe51.93–64.5635.53–48.17safer50.33–66.1633.94–49.77actual76.0024.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction552414966safe487–618349–478836–1096safer469–635332–496801–1131actual729231960
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction80.8775.18safe76.66–85.0970.67–79.68safer75.36–86.3969.34–81.01
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1211.4723.59safe9.26–14.988.53–14.4217.79–29.39safer8.38–15.867.61–15.3315.99–31.20actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.653.34safe0.49–2.910.48–2.810.97–5.72safer0.14–3.250.15–3.140.29–6.39actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.932.234.16safe0.87–2.991.11–3.351.98–6.33safer0.60–3.260.82–3.641.42–6.89actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.146.12safe1.56–4.391.59–4.703.15–9.08safer1.17–4.781.16–5.132.33–9.90actual0.005.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.64 | 0.00 | 1.30 0.44–2.16 0.19–2.41 | 1.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.54 0.38–5.04 | 1.00 | 40% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.53 3.68–7.39 3.18–7.89 | 5.00 | 3.47 1.76–5.18 1.29–5.64 | 1.00 | 9.00 5.44–12.56 4.47–13.53 | 6.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 14.63 10.93–18.33 9.90–19.36 | 16.00 | 10.55 7.17–13.93 6.24–14.86 | 8.00 | 25.18 18.10–32.26 16.13–34.22 | 24.00 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.50 6.98–12.02 6.12–12.88 | 8.00 | 7.44 5.14–9.74 4.34–10.54 | 5.00 | 16.94 12.12–21.76 10.46–23.42 | 13.00 | 65% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.29–5.46 1.76–5.99 | 2.00 | 3.02 1.60–4.43 1.12–4.92 | 1.00 | 6.89 3.89–9.89 2.87–10.91 | 3.00 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 6.46 4.25–8.66 3.66–9.26 | 8.00 | 4.19 2.21–6.17 1.68–6.71 | 2.00 | 10.65 6.47–14.83 5.33–15.96 | 10.00 | 71% 20% |
| Possession % | 58.25 51.93–64.56 50.33–66.16 | 76.00 | 41.85 35.53–48.17 33.94–49.77 | 24.00 | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 552 487–618 469–635 | 729 | 414 349–478 332–496 | 231 | 966 836–1096 801–1131 | 960 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.87 76.66–85.09 75.36–86.39 | — | 75.18 70.67–79.68 69.34–81.01 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 12.12 9.26–14.98 8.38–15.86 | 12.00 | 11.47 8.53–14.42 7.61–15.33 | 11.00 | 23.59 17.79–29.39 15.99–31.20 | 23.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.14–3.25 | 1.00 | 1.65 0.48–2.81 0.15–3.14 | 1.00 | 3.34 0.97–5.72 0.29–6.39 | 2.00 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.87–2.99 0.60–3.26 | 1.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 4.00 | 4.16 1.98–6.33 1.42–6.89 | 5.00 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.17–4.78 | 0.00 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | 5.00 | 6.12 3.15–9.08 2.33–9.90 | 5.00 | 39% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.