Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.522.87safe0.38–2.320.66–2.371.05–4.69safer0.13–2.570.43–2.600.57–5.17
Shots on target
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.495.079.56safe2.63–6.353.33–6.815.95–13.16safer2.14–6.842.86–7.285.00–14.12
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5713.7526.32safe8.64–16.4910.19–17.3218.83–33.81safer7.55–17.589.23–18.2816.78–35.86
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction8.569.2117.77safe5.62–11.506.53–11.8912.14–23.39safer4.79–12.335.79–12.6210.58–24.96
Blocked shots
30%
14%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.414.347.76safe1.53–5.302.69–6.004.22–11.29safer0.99–5.842.20–6.493.19–12.33
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction5.055.5310.59safe2.84–7.273.53–7.536.37–14.80safer2.27–7.843.00–8.075.27–15.91
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction39.0960.77safe32.30–45.8853.98–67.55safer30.63–47.5552.31–69.22
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction394582976safe327–461516–648842–1110safer309–480498–666807–1146
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction65.4480.49safe61.41–69.4776.17–84.82safer60.12–70.7674.86–86.13
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1911.5921.78safe7.35–13.038.65–14.5416.00–27.56safer6.59–13.787.90–15.2914.49–29.07
Offsides
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.793.57safe0.62–2.940.69–2.881.31–5.82safer0.32–3.240.40–3.170.72–6.41
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.963.70safe0.69–2.790.83–3.091.52–5.88safer0.43–3.060.54–3.380.97–6.44
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.016.55safe2.10–4.981.46–4.573.56–9.54safer1.72–5.361.03–4.992.75–10.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.32 0.13–2.57 | 1.52 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.60 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.57–5.17 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.63–6.35 2.14–6.84 | 5.07 3.33–6.81 2.86–7.28 | 9.56 5.95–13.16 5.00–14.12 | 36% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.57 8.64–16.49 7.55–17.58 | 13.75 10.19–17.32 9.23–18.28 | 26.32 18.83–33.81 16.78–35.86 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 8.56 5.62–11.50 4.79–12.33 | 9.21 6.53–11.89 5.79–12.62 | 17.77 12.14–23.39 10.58–24.96 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 1.53–5.30 0.99–5.84 | 4.34 2.69–6.00 2.20–6.49 | 7.76 4.22–11.29 3.19–12.33 | 30% 14% 56% |
| Corners | 5.05 2.84–7.27 2.27–7.84 | 5.53 3.53–7.53 3.00–8.07 | 10.59 6.37–14.80 5.27–15.91 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 39.09 32.30–45.88 30.63–47.55 | 60.77 53.98–67.55 52.31–69.22 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 394 327–461 309–480 | 582 516–648 498–666 | 976 842–1110 807–1146 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.44 61.41–69.47 60.12–70.76 | 80.49 76.17–84.82 74.86–86.13 | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 10.19 7.35–13.03 6.59–13.78 | 11.59 8.65–14.54 7.90–15.29 | 21.78 16.00–27.56 14.49–29.07 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 1.79 0.69–2.88 0.40–3.17 | 3.57 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.41 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.97–6.44 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.98 1.72–5.36 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–4.99 | 6.55 3.56–9.54 2.75–10.36 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.