Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Francois Letexier
Goals
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.663.06safe0.43–2.360.80–2.521.23–4.88safer0.17–2.620.56–2.770.73–5.39actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.385.109.48safe2.52–6.233.39–6.815.91–13.04safer2.02–6.732.92–7.284.95–14.01actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9513.5325.48safe8.25–15.6610.15–16.9118.40–32.57safer7.22–16.699.22–17.8416.44–34.53actual22.0012.0034.00
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.088.2717.36safe6.57–11.605.97–10.5812.54–22.17safer5.70–12.465.18–11.3710.88–23.83actual16.007.0023.00
Blocked shots
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.476.55safe1.49–4.662.06–4.893.55–9.55safer0.96–5.191.57–5.372.53–10.57actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.785.2510.03safe2.58–6.993.27–7.225.85–14.21safer1.98–7.582.73–7.764.71–15.35actual7.002.009.00
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.9853.99safe40.67–53.3047.67–60.31safer39.07–54.9046.08–61.91actual62.0038.00
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction446522968safe381–512457–586838–1098safer363–529439–604803–1133actual569353922
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction72.8277.26safe68.60–77.0372.75–81.77safer67.30–78.3371.42–83.10
Fouls
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction10.229.6719.89safe7.36–13.076.73–12.6214.09–25.69safer6.47–13.965.81–13.5412.29–27.50actual8.0012.0020.00
Offsides
38%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.324.54safe1.01–3.431.16–3.482.17–6.91safer0.67–3.770.83–3.821.49–7.59actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.913.79safe0.82–2.930.79–3.031.61–5.96safer0.55–3.200.50–3.321.05–6.53actual3.006.009.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.752.676.42safe2.34–5.171.11–4.223.45–9.39safer1.95–5.560.68–4.652.63–10.21actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.36 0.17–2.62 | 1.00 | 1.66 0.80–2.52 0.56–2.77 | 2.00 | 3.06 1.23–4.88 0.73–5.39 | 3.00 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.23 2.02–6.73 | 6.00 | 5.10 3.39–6.81 2.92–7.28 | 4.00 | 9.48 5.91–13.04 4.95–14.01 | 10.00 | 34% 53% |
| Total shots | 11.95 8.25–15.66 7.22–16.69 | 22.00 | 13.53 10.15–16.91 9.22–17.84 | 12.00 | 25.48 18.40–32.57 16.44–34.53 | 34.00 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 9.08 6.57–11.60 5.70–12.46 | 16.00 | 8.27 5.97–10.58 5.18–11.37 | 7.00 | 17.36 12.54–22.17 10.88–23.83 | 23.00 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.49–4.66 0.96–5.19 | 7.00 | 3.47 2.06–4.89 1.57–5.37 | 3.00 | 6.55 3.55–9.55 2.53–10.57 | 10.00 | 36% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.58–6.99 1.98–7.58 | 7.00 | 5.25 3.27–7.22 2.73–7.76 | 2.00 | 10.03 5.85–14.21 4.71–15.35 | 9.00 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 46.98 40.67–53.30 39.07–54.90 | 62.00 | 53.99 47.67–60.31 46.08–61.91 | 38.00 | — | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 446 381–512 363–529 | 569 | 522 457–586 439–604 | 353 | 968 838–1098 803–1133 | 922 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.82 68.60–77.03 67.30–78.33 | — | 77.26 72.75–81.77 71.42–83.10 | — | — | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 10.22 7.36–13.07 6.47–13.96 | 8.00 | 9.67 6.73–12.62 5.81–13.54 | 12.00 | 19.89 14.09–25.69 12.29–27.50 | 20.00 | 50% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.22 1.01–3.43 0.67–3.77 | 0.00 | 2.32 1.16–3.48 0.83–3.82 | 1.00 | 4.54 2.17–6.91 1.49–7.59 | 1.00 | 38% 19% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.82–2.93 0.55–3.20 | 3.00 | 1.91 0.79–3.03 0.50–3.32 | 6.00 | 3.79 1.61–5.96 1.05–6.53 | 9.00 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.75 2.34–5.17 1.95–5.56 | 2.00 | 2.67 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.65 | 5.00 | 6.42 3.45–9.39 2.63–10.21 | 7.00 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.