UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Harm Osmers
Goals
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.212.46safe0.29–2.220.35–2.070.64–4.29safer0.03–2.480.10–2.310.13–4.79actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
55%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.633.748.38safe2.78–6.492.04–5.454.81–11.94safer2.28–6.991.57–5.923.85–12.91actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4711.9124.38safe8.76–16.178.54–15.2917.30–31.46safer7.73–17.207.61–16.2215.34–33.43actual8.009.0017.00
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.228.1916.42safe5.71–10.745.89–10.4911.60–21.23safer4.84–11.605.10–11.299.94–22.90actual3.006.009.00
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.893.117.00safe2.30–5.471.70–4.534.00–10.00safer1.77–6.001.21–5.012.98–11.02actual1.003.004.00
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.824.859.67safe2.62–7.032.87–6.835.49–13.86safer2.02–7.622.33–7.374.36–14.99actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.3251.43safe42.01–54.6445.12–57.75safer40.41–56.2443.52–59.35actual64.0036.00
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction437427864safe371–502362–491734–993safer354–520345–509698–1029actual644354998
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction70.2273.44safe66.01–74.4468.93–77.95safer64.70–75.7467.60–79.28
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2812.6121.89safe6.42–12.149.66–15.5516.08–27.69safer5.54–13.028.74–16.4714.28–29.49actual16.0012.0028.00
Offsides
42%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.633.40safe0.56–2.980.47–2.801.03–5.78safer0.22–3.320.14–3.130.36–6.45actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.042.214.25safe0.98–3.091.09–3.332.08–6.43safer0.71–3.370.80–3.621.51–6.99actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.060.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
33%
18%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.875.25safe0.96–3.791.32–4.432.28–8.22safer0.57–4.180.89–4.861.46–9.04actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.22 0.03–2.48 | 0.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.10–2.31 | 3.00 | 2.46 0.64–4.29 0.13–4.79 | 3.00 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.78–6.49 2.28–6.99 | 4.00 | 3.74 2.04–5.45 1.57–5.92 | 3.00 | 8.38 4.81–11.94 3.85–12.91 | 7.00 | 55% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 12.47 8.76–16.17 7.73–17.20 | 8.00 | 11.91 8.54–15.29 7.61–16.22 | 9.00 | 24.38 17.30–31.46 15.34–33.43 | 17.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.22 5.71–10.74 4.84–11.60 | 3.00 | 8.19 5.89–10.49 5.10–11.29 | 6.00 | 16.42 11.60–21.23 9.94–22.90 | 9.00 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.30–5.47 1.77–6.00 | 1.00 | 3.11 1.70–4.53 1.21–5.01 | 3.00 | 7.00 4.00–10.00 2.98–11.02 | 4.00 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 4.82 2.62–7.03 2.02–7.62 | 2.00 | 4.85 2.87–6.83 2.33–7.37 | 4.00 | 9.67 5.49–13.86 4.36–14.99 | 6.00 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 48.32 42.01–54.64 40.41–56.24 | 64.00 | 51.43 45.12–57.75 43.52–59.35 | 36.00 | — | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 437 371–502 354–520 | 644 | 427 362–491 345–509 | 354 | 864 734–993 698–1029 | 998 | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.22 66.01–74.44 64.70–75.74 | — | 73.44 68.93–77.95 67.60–79.28 | — | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 9.28 6.42–12.14 5.54–13.02 | 16.00 | 12.61 9.66–15.55 8.74–16.47 | 12.00 | 21.89 16.08–27.69 14.28–29.49 | 28.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.56–2.98 0.22–3.32 | 1.00 | 1.63 0.47–2.80 0.14–3.13 | 1.00 | 3.40 1.03–5.78 0.36–6.45 | 2.00 | 42% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.98–3.09 0.71–3.37 | 1.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 2.00 | 4.25 2.08–6.43 1.51–6.99 | 3.00 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.96–3.79 0.57–4.18 | 0.00 | 2.87 1.32–4.43 0.89–4.86 | 4.00 | 5.25 2.28–8.22 1.46–9.04 | 4.00 | 33% 18% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+