Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Aliyar Agayev
Goals
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.810.962.78safe0.85–2.780.10–1.820.95–4.60safer0.59–3.040.00–2.070.45–5.10actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.672.778.45safe3.82–7.531.07–4.484.88–12.01safer3.32–8.030.60–4.953.92–12.98actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction15.408.0523.45safe11.69–19.104.67–11.4316.36–30.53safer10.66–20.133.74–12.3614.40–32.49actual14.007.0021.00
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction10.565.7616.33safe8.05–13.083.46–8.0611.51–21.14safer7.18–13.942.66–8.869.85–22.80actual4.003.007.00
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.672.116.78safe3.08–6.250.70–3.533.78–9.78safer2.55–6.780.21–4.012.76–10.80actual3.000.003.00
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.223.469.67safe4.01–8.421.48–5.435.49–13.86safer3.42–9.020.94–5.974.36–14.99actual4.000.004.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction62.6737.65safe56.36–68.9931.33–43.97safer54.76–70.5929.74–45.57actual49.0051.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction587369956safe522–653304–433826–1086safer504–670287–451791–1121actual5205581078
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction81.7869.67safe77.56–85.9965.17–74.18safer76.26–87.3063.84–75.51
Fouls
15%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1713.6722.83safe6.31–12.0210.72–16.6117.03–28.64safer5.42–12.919.80–17.5315.23–30.44actual13.0014.0027.00
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.563.30safe0.53–2.950.40–2.730.93–5.67safer0.18–3.290.07–3.060.25–6.35actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
25%
17%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.854.75safe0.84–2.961.73–3.972.57–6.93safer0.57–3.231.44–4.262.01–7.49actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.130.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
75%
homeawaytotalprediction1.733.835.56safe0.32–3.152.27–5.382.59–8.53safer0.00–3.541.84–5.811.77–9.35actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.85–2.78 0.59–3.04 | 0.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 0.00 | 2.78 0.95–4.60 0.45–5.10 | 0.00 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.67 3.82–7.53 3.32–8.03 | 5.00 | 2.77 1.07–4.48 0.60–4.95 | 2.00 | 8.45 4.88–12.01 3.92–12.98 | 7.00 | 80% |
| Total shots | 15.40 11.69–19.10 10.66–20.13 | 14.00 | 8.05 4.67–11.43 3.74–12.36 | 7.00 | 23.45 16.36–30.53 14.40–32.49 | 21.00 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 10.56 8.05–13.08 7.18–13.94 | 4.00 | 5.76 3.46–8.06 2.66–8.86 | 3.00 | 16.33 11.51–21.14 9.85–22.80 | 7.00 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.67 3.08–6.25 2.55–6.78 | 3.00 | 2.11 0.70–3.53 0.21–4.01 | 0.00 | 6.78 3.78–9.78 2.76–10.80 | 3.00 | 79% |
| Corners | 6.22 4.01–8.42 3.42–9.02 | 4.00 | 3.46 1.48–5.43 0.94–5.97 | 0.00 | 9.67 5.49–13.86 4.36–14.99 | 4.00 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 62.67 56.36–68.99 54.76–70.59 | 49.00 | 37.65 31.33–43.97 29.74–45.57 | 51.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 587 522–653 504–670 | 520 | 369 304–433 287–451 | 558 | 956 826–1086 791–1121 | 1078 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.78 77.56–85.99 76.26–87.30 | — | 69.67 65.17–74.18 63.84–75.51 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 9.17 6.31–12.02 5.42–12.91 | 13.00 | 13.67 10.72–16.61 9.80–17.53 | 14.00 | 22.83 17.03–28.64 15.23–30.44 | 27.00 | 15% 80% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.53–2.95 0.18–3.29 | 1.00 | 1.56 0.40–2.73 0.07–3.06 | 0.00 | 3.30 0.93–5.67 0.25–6.35 | 1.00 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.84–2.96 0.57–3.23 | 2.00 | 2.85 1.73–3.97 1.44–4.26 | 4.00 | 4.75 2.57–6.93 2.01–7.49 | 6.00 | 25% 17% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 1.73 0.32–3.15 0.00–3.54 | 2.00 | 3.83 2.27–5.38 1.84–5.81 | 5.00 | 5.56 2.59–8.53 1.77–9.35 | 7.00 | 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.