UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jose Luis Munuera Montero
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.122.54safe0.46–2.390.26–1.980.72–4.36safer0.20–2.650.01–2.220.21–4.87actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.903.658.55safe3.04–6.751.95–5.364.99–12.11safer2.54–7.251.48–5.834.02–13.08actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction14.139.2623.39safe10.43–17.845.88–12.6416.31–30.47safer9.40–18.874.95–13.5714.35–32.44actual10.0012.0022.00
Shots in box
61%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction8.396.7715.16safe5.87–10.914.47–9.0710.34–19.98safer5.01–11.773.67–9.878.68–21.64actual6.009.0015.00
Blocked shots
62%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.436.13safe2.11–5.281.01–3.843.13–9.13safer1.58–5.820.53–4.332.11–10.15actual3.003.006.00
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.554.0510.60safe4.34–8.752.07–6.036.41–14.78safer3.75–9.351.53–6.575.28–15.91actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction54.1645.62safe47.84–60.4739.30–51.94safer46.24–62.0737.70–53.54actual54.0046.00
Passes
72%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction479410889safe414–545345–475760–1019safer396–562328–492724–1055actual485400885
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction76.2873.12safe72.07–80.5068.61–77.63safer70.77–81.8067.28–78.96
Fouls
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction10.129.5919.71safe7.26–12.986.65–12.5413.91–25.51safer6.38–13.865.73–13.4512.11–27.32actual10.0016.0026.00
Offsides
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.432.123.56safe0.22–2.640.96–3.281.18–5.93safer0.00–2.990.63–3.620.51–6.60actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.204.32safe1.06–3.181.08–3.322.14–6.49safer0.79–3.450.79–3.611.58–7.05actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.063.295.35safe0.65–3.481.74–4.842.38–8.32safer0.26–3.871.30–5.281.56–9.14actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.65 | 2.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.01–2.22 | 3.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 5.00 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.75 2.54–7.25 | 4.00 | 3.65 1.95–5.36 1.48–5.83 | 4.00 | 8.55 4.99–12.11 4.02–13.08 | 8.00 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.13 10.43–17.84 9.40–18.87 | 10.00 | 9.26 5.88–12.64 4.95–13.57 | 12.00 | 23.39 16.31–30.47 14.35–32.44 | 22.00 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 8.39 5.87–10.91 5.01–11.77 | 6.00 | 6.77 4.47–9.07 3.67–9.87 | 9.00 | 15.16 10.34–19.98 8.68–21.64 | 15.00 | 61% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 2.11–5.28 1.58–5.82 | 3.00 | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.53–4.33 | 3.00 | 6.13 3.13–9.13 2.11–10.15 | 6.00 | 62% 15% 23% |
| Corners | 6.55 4.34–8.75 3.75–9.35 | 2.00 | 4.05 2.07–6.03 1.53–6.57 | 4.00 | 10.60 6.41–14.78 5.28–15.91 | 6.00 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 54.16 47.84–60.47 46.24–62.07 | 54.00 | 45.62 39.30–51.94 37.70–53.54 | 46.00 | — | — | 68% 27% |
| Passes | 479 414–545 396–562 | 485 | 410 345–475 328–492 | 400 | 889 760–1019 724–1055 | 885 | 72% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.28 72.07–80.50 70.77–81.80 | — | 73.12 68.61–77.63 67.28–78.96 | — | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 10.12 7.26–12.98 6.38–13.86 | 10.00 | 9.59 6.65–12.54 5.73–13.45 | 16.00 | 19.71 13.91–25.51 12.11–27.32 | 26.00 | 50% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.22–2.64 0.00–2.99 | 0.00 | 2.12 0.96–3.28 0.63–3.62 | 0.00 | 3.56 1.18–5.93 0.51–6.60 | 0.00 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.06–3.18 0.79–3.45 | 2.00 | 2.20 1.08–3.32 0.79–3.61 | 2.00 | 4.32 2.14–6.49 1.58–7.05 | 4.00 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.06 0.65–3.48 0.26–3.87 | 2.00 | 3.29 1.74–4.84 1.30–5.28 | 2.00 | 5.35 2.38–8.32 1.56–9.14 | 4.00 | 22% 16% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.