Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Rade Obrenovic
Goals
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.652.97safe0.36–2.280.79–2.511.14–4.79safer0.10–2.540.54–2.750.64–5.30actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.599.39safe2.94–6.652.89–6.305.82–12.95safer2.44–7.152.42–6.774.85–13.92actual2.007.009.00
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3812.7026.08safe9.68–17.089.32–16.0819.00–33.17safer8.65–18.128.39–17.0117.04–35.13actual12.0018.0030.00
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.248.1917.43safe6.72–11.755.89–10.4912.61–22.24safer5.86–12.625.09–11.2910.95–23.91actual7.0012.0019.00
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.297.59safe2.72–5.891.88–4.714.60–10.59safer2.18–6.421.39–5.193.57–11.61actual2.004.006.00
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.829.39safe2.36–6.772.84–6.805.20–13.57safer1.77–7.372.31–7.344.07–14.70actual2.006.008.00
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction47.9451.56safe41.62–54.2545.24–57.88safer40.02–55.8543.64–59.47actual35.0065.00
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4845261009safe418–549461–590879–1139safer401–567444–608844–1174actual3686811049
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction71.7877.11safe67.56–75.9972.60–81.61safer66.26–77.2971.27–82.94
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0511.0222.06safe8.19–13.908.07–13.9616.26–27.87safer7.30–14.797.15–14.8814.46–29.67actual12.009.0021.00
Offsides
42%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.663.50safe0.62–3.040.50–2.831.12–5.87safer0.28–3.380.17–3.160.45–6.54actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
39%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.064.09safe0.97–3.080.94–3.181.91–6.26safer0.70–3.350.65–3.471.35–6.83actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.13safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.420.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.195.90safe1.30–4.131.64–4.752.93–8.87safer0.91–4.511.21–5.182.11–9.69actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.36–2.28 0.10–2.54 | 0.00 | 1.65 0.79–2.51 0.54–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.97 1.14–4.79 0.64–5.30 | 1.00 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.94–6.65 2.44–7.15 | 2.00 | 4.59 2.89–6.30 2.42–6.77 | 7.00 | 9.39 5.82–12.95 4.85–13.92 | 9.00 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.38 9.68–17.08 8.65–18.12 | 12.00 | 12.70 9.32–16.08 8.39–17.01 | 18.00 | 26.08 19.00–33.17 17.04–35.13 | 30.00 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 9.24 6.72–11.75 5.86–12.62 | 7.00 | 8.19 5.89–10.49 5.09–11.29 | 12.00 | 17.43 12.61–22.24 10.95–23.91 | 19.00 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.72–5.89 2.18–6.42 | 2.00 | 3.29 1.88–4.71 1.39–5.19 | 4.00 | 7.59 4.60–10.59 3.57–11.61 | 6.00 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 4.57 2.36–6.77 1.77–7.37 | 2.00 | 4.82 2.84–6.80 2.31–7.34 | 6.00 | 9.39 5.20–13.57 4.07–14.70 | 8.00 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 47.94 41.62–54.25 40.02–55.85 | 35.00 | 51.56 45.24–57.88 43.64–59.47 | 65.00 | — | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 484 418–549 401–567 | 368 | 526 461–590 444–608 | 681 | 1009 879–1139 844–1174 | 1049 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.78 67.56–75.99 66.26–77.29 | — | 77.11 72.60–81.61 71.27–82.94 | — | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 11.05 8.19–13.90 7.30–14.79 | 12.00 | 11.02 8.07–13.96 7.15–14.88 | 9.00 | 22.06 16.26–27.87 14.46–29.67 | 21.00 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.62–3.04 0.28–3.38 | 0.00 | 1.66 0.50–2.83 0.17–3.16 | 1.00 | 3.50 1.12–5.87 0.45–6.54 | 1.00 | 42% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.97–3.08 0.70–3.35 | 3.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 0.00 | 4.09 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.83 | 3.00 | 39% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.30–4.13 0.91–4.51 | 5.00 | 3.19 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.18 | 2.00 | 5.90 2.93–8.87 2.11–9.69 | 7.00 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.