Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Michael Oliver
Goals
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.623.42safe0.83–2.760.76–2.481.59–5.24safer0.57–3.020.52–2.731.09–5.75actual1.004.005.00
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.4510.01safe3.70–7.412.75–6.166.45–13.57safer3.20–7.912.28–6.635.48–14.54actual3.008.0011.00
Total shots
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7412.0826.82safe11.03–18.448.70–15.4619.74–33.90safer10.00–19.477.77–16.3917.77–35.86actual15.0014.0029.00
Shots in box
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction9.778.8318.60safe7.26–12.296.53–11.1313.79–23.42safer6.39–13.155.73–11.9312.13–25.08actual6.0012.0018.00
Blocked shots
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.137.80safe3.08–6.251.71–4.544.80–10.80safer2.55–6.791.23–5.033.78–11.82actual5.002.007.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction6.004.5510.56safe3.80–8.212.57–6.536.37–14.74safer3.20–8.802.04–7.075.24–15.87actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.5950.21safe43.28–55.9143.89–56.52safer41.68–57.5142.29–58.12actual54.0046.00
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction490467957safe425–555402–532827–1087safer407–573385–549792–1122actual5714991070
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction75.9373.52safe71.71–80.1469.01–78.03safer70.41–81.4567.68–79.36
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5211.7324.25safe9.66–15.388.79–14.6818.45–30.05safer8.78–16.267.87–15.6016.65–31.86actual12.0021.0033.00
Offsides
19%
18%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.292.463.75safe0.08–2.501.29–3.621.38–6.12safer0.00–2.850.96–3.950.70–6.80actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.133.90safe0.71–2.821.01–3.251.72–6.08safer0.44–3.090.72–3.541.16–6.64actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.285.83safe1.13–3.961.73–4.842.86–8.80safer0.74–4.351.30–5.272.04–9.62actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.83–2.76 0.57–3.02 | 1.00 | 1.62 0.76–2.48 0.52–2.73 | 4.00 | 3.42 1.59–5.24 1.09–5.75 | 5.00 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.56 3.70–7.41 3.20–7.91 | 3.00 | 4.45 2.75–6.16 2.28–6.63 | 8.00 | 10.01 6.45–13.57 5.48–14.54 | 11.00 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.74 11.03–18.44 10.00–19.47 | 15.00 | 12.08 8.70–15.46 7.77–16.39 | 14.00 | 26.82 19.74–33.90 17.77–35.86 | 29.00 | 66% 27% |
| Shots in box | 9.77 7.26–12.29 6.39–13.15 | 6.00 | 8.83 6.53–11.13 5.73–11.93 | 12.00 | 18.60 13.79–23.42 12.13–25.08 | 18.00 | 54% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 4.67 3.08–6.25 2.55–6.79 | 5.00 | 3.13 1.71–4.54 1.23–5.03 | 2.00 | 7.80 4.80–10.80 3.78–11.82 | 7.00 | 64% 23% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.80–8.21 3.20–8.80 | 6.00 | 4.55 2.57–6.53 2.04–7.07 | 2.00 | 10.56 6.37–14.74 5.24–15.87 | 8.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 49.59 43.28–55.91 41.68–57.51 | 54.00 | 50.21 43.89–56.52 42.29–58.12 | 46.00 | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 490 425–555 407–573 | 571 | 467 402–532 385–549 | 499 | 957 827–1087 792–1122 | 1070 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.93 71.71–80.14 70.41–81.45 | — | 73.52 69.01–78.03 67.68–79.36 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.52 9.66–15.38 8.78–16.26 | 12.00 | 11.73 8.79–14.68 7.87–15.60 | 21.00 | 24.25 18.45–30.05 16.65–31.86 | 33.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.29 0.08–2.50 0.00–2.85 | 1.00 | 2.46 1.29–3.62 0.96–3.95 | 2.00 | 3.75 1.38–6.12 0.70–6.80 | 3.00 | 19% 18% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.71–2.82 0.44–3.09 | 3.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 0.00 | 3.90 1.72–6.08 1.16–6.64 | 3.00 | 33% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.13–3.96 0.74–4.35 | 4.00 | 3.28 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.27 | 1.00 | 5.83 2.86–8.80 2.04–9.62 | 5.00 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.