Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.193.12safe0.96–2.900.34–2.051.30–4.95safer0.71–3.150.11–2.280.82–5.43
Shots on target
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.823.709.51safe3.95–7.681.95–5.445.91–13.12safer3.46–8.171.49–5.914.95–14.07
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3611.6428.00safe12.43–20.288.08–15.2120.51–35.49safer11.34–21.377.12–16.1618.46–37.54
Shots in box
73%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.577.4518.02safe7.63–13.514.77–10.1312.40–23.65safer6.80–14.344.03–10.8710.83–25.21
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.347.45safe2.23–5.991.69–5.003.92–10.99safer1.68–6.541.20–5.492.88–12.02
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.774.129.89safe3.56–7.992.12–6.125.68–14.11safer2.99–8.561.59–6.664.57–15.22
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.8146.55safe46.02–59.6039.77–53.34safer44.35–61.2738.10–55.01
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction529470999safe462–596404–537866–1133safer444–614386–554830–1169
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction72.8974.41safe68.86–76.9270.09–78.74safer67.57–78.2168.78–80.04
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8512.5725.42safe10.01–15.699.63–15.5219.64–31.20safer9.26–16.458.88–16.2618.14–32.71
Offsides
61%
19%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.321.273.59safe1.16–3.480.18–2.361.33–5.84safer0.85–3.780.00–2.650.74–6.43
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.323.91safe0.55–2.641.19–3.441.73–6.09safer0.28–2.910.90–3.741.17–6.65
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
27%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.836.59safe1.32–4.192.28–5.393.59–9.58safer0.93–4.581.85–5.812.78–10.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 0.96–2.90 0.71–3.15 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 3.12 1.30–4.95 0.82–5.43 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.82 3.95–7.68 3.46–8.17 | 3.70 1.95–5.44 1.49–5.91 | 9.51 5.91–13.12 4.95–14.07 | 70% 20% |
| Total shots | 16.36 12.43–20.28 11.34–21.37 | 11.64 8.08–15.21 7.12–16.16 | 28.00 20.51–35.49 18.46–37.54 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.57 7.63–13.51 6.80–14.34 | 7.45 4.77–10.13 4.03–10.87 | 18.02 12.40–23.65 10.83–25.21 | 73% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.23–5.99 1.68–6.54 | 3.34 1.69–5.00 1.20–5.49 | 7.45 3.92–10.99 2.88–12.02 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.56–7.99 2.99–8.56 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.59–6.66 | 9.89 5.68–14.11 4.57–15.22 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 52.81 46.02–59.60 44.35–61.27 | 46.55 39.77–53.34 38.10–55.01 | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 529 462–596 444–614 | 470 404–537 386–554 | 999 866–1133 830–1169 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.89 68.86–76.92 67.57–78.21 | 74.41 70.09–78.74 68.78–80.04 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 12.85 10.01–15.69 9.26–16.45 | 12.57 9.63–15.52 8.88–16.26 | 25.42 19.64–31.20 18.14–32.71 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.32 1.16–3.48 0.85–3.78 | 1.27 0.18–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 3.59 1.33–5.84 0.74–6.43 | 61% 19% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.55–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 2.32 1.19–3.44 0.90–3.74 | 3.91 1.73–6.09 1.17–6.65 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.83 2.28–5.39 1.85–5.81 | 6.59 3.59–9.58 2.78–10.39 | 27% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+