UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Goals
46%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.370.962.33safe0.40–2.330.10–1.820.50–4.15safer0.14–2.590.00–2.070.00–4.66actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.388.11safe2.87–6.581.67–5.094.54–11.67safer2.37–7.081.21–5.563.58–12.64actual3.001.004.00
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7410.5123.26safe9.04–16.457.13–13.8916.18–30.34safer8.01–17.486.20–14.8214.21–32.30actual10.0013.0023.00
Shots in box
50%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction7.136.6113.74safe4.62–9.654.31–8.918.92–18.56safer3.75–10.513.51–9.717.26–20.22actual5.0010.0015.00
Blocked shots
44%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.986.06safe1.50–4.671.56–4.393.07–9.06safer0.97–5.211.08–4.882.05–10.08actual4.004.008.00
Corners
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.479.42safe2.75–7.162.49–6.445.23–13.60safer2.15–7.751.95–6.984.10–14.73actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.3746.49safe46.05–58.6840.17–52.80safer44.45–60.2838.57–54.40actual36.0064.00
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction466401866safe400–531336–466737–996safer383–549319–483701–1032actual326583909
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction70.2368.87safe66.01–74.4564.36–73.37safer64.71–75.7563.03–74.70
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8613.5326.39safe10.00–15.7210.59–16.4820.59–32.19safer9.12–16.609.67–17.3918.79–34.00actual15.0015.0030.00
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.733.65safe0.72–3.140.56–2.891.28–6.03safer0.37–3.480.23–3.220.61–6.70actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
37%
19%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.324.45safe1.08–3.191.20–3.442.28–6.63safer0.80–3.460.91–3.731.72–7.19actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.665.05safe0.98–3.811.10–4.212.08–8.02safer0.59–4.200.67–4.641.26–8.84actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 0.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 0.00 | 2.33 0.50–4.15 0.00–4.66 | 0.00 | 46% 27% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.87–6.58 2.37–7.08 | 3.00 | 3.38 1.67–5.09 1.21–5.56 | 1.00 | 8.11 4.54–11.67 3.58–12.64 | 4.00 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 12.74 9.04–16.45 8.01–17.48 | 10.00 | 10.51 7.13–13.89 6.20–14.82 | 13.00 | 23.26 16.18–30.34 14.21–32.30 | 23.00 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 7.13 4.62–9.65 3.75–10.51 | 5.00 | 6.61 4.31–8.91 3.51–9.71 | 10.00 | 13.74 8.92–18.56 7.26–20.22 | 15.00 | 50% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.09 1.50–4.67 0.97–5.21 | 4.00 | 2.98 1.56–4.39 1.08–4.88 | 4.00 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.05–10.08 | 8.00 | 44% 17% 40% |
| Corners | 4.95 2.75–7.16 2.15–7.75 | 3.00 | 4.47 2.49–6.44 1.95–6.98 | 2.00 | 9.42 5.23–13.60 4.10–14.73 | 5.00 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 52.37 46.05–58.68 44.45–60.28 | 36.00 | 46.49 40.17–52.80 38.57–54.40 | 64.00 | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 466 400–531 383–549 | 326 | 401 336–466 319–483 | 583 | 866 737–996 701–1032 | 909 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 66.01–74.45 64.71–75.75 | — | 68.87 64.36–73.37 63.03–74.70 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 12.86 10.00–15.72 9.12–16.60 | 15.00 | 13.53 10.59–16.48 9.67–17.39 | 15.00 | 26.39 20.59–32.19 18.79–34.00 | 30.00 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.72–3.14 0.37–3.48 | 4.00 | 1.73 0.56–2.89 0.23–3.22 | 0.00 | 3.65 1.28–6.03 0.61–6.70 | 4.00 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.19 0.80–3.46 | 4.00 | 2.32 1.20–3.44 0.91–3.73 | 2.00 | 4.45 2.28–6.63 1.72–7.19 | 6.00 | 37% 19% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.98–3.81 0.59–4.20 | 1.00 | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 3.00 | 5.05 2.08–8.02 1.26–8.84 | 4.00 | 36% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+