Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Goals
54%
24%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.022.74safe0.76–2.680.16–1.880.92–4.56safer0.50–2.940.00–2.120.41–5.07actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.943.998.93safe3.08–6.792.28–5.705.36–12.49safer2.58–7.291.81–6.174.39–13.46actual6.007.0013.00
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7610.2624.02safe10.06–17.466.88–13.6416.94–31.10safer9.02–18.495.95–14.5714.97–33.06actual12.0018.0030.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction9.315.8615.17safe6.80–11.833.56–8.1610.36–19.99safer5.93–12.692.76–8.968.70–21.65actual9.009.0018.00
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.772.896.66safe2.18–5.351.48–4.313.66–9.66safer1.65–5.890.99–4.792.64–10.68actual1.005.006.00
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.679.38safe3.50–7.911.69–5.655.19–13.56safer2.91–8.511.15–6.184.06–14.69actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction53.2146.09safe46.90–59.5339.77–52.41safer45.30–61.1338.18–54.01actual53.0047.00
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction460394854safe395–525329–458724–984safer377–543312–476689–1019actual519459978
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction74.4672.65safe70.25–78.6868.14–77.16safer68.95–79.9866.81–78.49
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4713.6326.09safe9.61–15.3210.68–16.5720.29–31.90safer8.72–16.219.76–17.4918.49–33.70actual8.009.0017.00
Offsides
19%
17%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.694.14safe0.24–2.661.53–3.851.77–6.51safer0.00–3.011.19–4.181.09–7.19actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
27%
19%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.404.11safe0.66–2.771.28–3.521.94–6.29safer0.39–3.040.99–3.811.37–6.85actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.19safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.812.975.78safe1.39–4.221.41–4.522.81–8.74safer1.00–4.610.98–4.951.99–9.57actual6.003.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.76–2.68 0.50–2.94 | 3.00 | 1.02 0.16–1.88 0.00–2.12 | 1.00 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.41–5.07 | 4.00 | 54% 24% 22% |
| Shots on target | 4.94 3.08–6.79 2.58–7.29 | 6.00 | 3.99 2.28–5.70 1.81–6.17 | 7.00 | 8.93 5.36–12.49 4.39–13.46 | 13.00 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.76 10.06–17.46 9.02–18.49 | 12.00 | 10.26 6.88–13.64 5.95–14.57 | 18.00 | 24.02 16.94–31.10 14.97–33.06 | 30.00 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.31 6.80–11.83 5.93–12.69 | 9.00 | 5.86 3.56–8.16 2.76–8.96 | 9.00 | 15.17 10.36–19.99 8.70–21.65 | 18.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 2.18–5.35 1.65–5.89 | 1.00 | 2.89 1.48–4.31 0.99–4.79 | 5.00 | 6.66 3.66–9.66 2.64–10.68 | 6.00 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.50–7.91 2.91–8.51 | 4.00 | 3.67 1.69–5.65 1.15–6.18 | 4.00 | 9.38 5.19–13.56 4.06–14.69 | 8.00 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 53.21 46.90–59.53 45.30–61.13 | 53.00 | 46.09 39.77–52.41 38.18–54.01 | 47.00 | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 460 395–525 377–543 | 519 | 394 329–458 312–476 | 459 | 854 724–984 689–1019 | 978 | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.46 70.25–78.68 68.95–79.98 | — | 72.65 68.14–77.16 66.81–78.49 | — | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.47 9.61–15.32 8.72–16.21 | 8.00 | 13.63 10.68–16.57 9.76–17.49 | 9.00 | 26.09 20.29–31.90 18.49–33.70 | 17.00 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.24–2.66 0.00–3.01 | 0.00 | 2.69 1.53–3.85 1.19–4.18 | 1.00 | 4.14 1.77–6.51 1.09–7.19 | 1.00 | 19% 17% 64% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.77 0.39–3.04 | 1.00 | 2.40 1.28–3.52 0.99–3.81 | 3.00 | 4.11 1.94–6.29 1.37–6.85 | 4.00 | 27% 19% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.39–4.22 1.00–4.61 | 6.00 | 2.97 1.41–4.52 0.98–4.95 | 3.00 | 5.78 2.81–8.74 1.99–9.57 | 9.00 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+