UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League B - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.680.942.62safe0.71–2.640.08–1.800.79–4.44safer0.45–2.900.00–2.050.29–4.95actual2.004.006.00
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.432.477.89safe3.57–7.280.76–4.174.33–11.45safer3.07–7.780.29–4.643.36–12.42actual4.007.0011.00
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction15.107.5022.60safe11.40–18.814.12–10.8815.52–29.68safer10.37–19.843.19–11.8113.56–31.65actual13.0015.0028.00
Shots in box
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction8.845.4614.30safe6.32–11.353.16–7.769.48–19.11safer5.45–12.222.36–8.567.82–20.78actual5.009.0014.00
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.972.276.24safe2.39–5.550.86–3.693.24–9.24safer1.85–6.090.37–4.172.22–10.26actual6.003.009.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.093.639.72safe3.89–8.301.65–5.615.54–13.90safer3.29–8.891.11–6.144.40–15.04actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.4045.22safe49.08–61.7138.90–51.54safer47.48–63.3137.30–53.13actual56.0044.00
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction506395901safe441–572331–460772–1031safer423–589313–477736–1067actual5914621053
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction73.6468.68safe69.42–77.8564.18–73.19safer68.12–79.1662.84–74.52
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5912.3724.96safe9.73–15.459.42–15.3119.15–30.76safer8.85–16.338.50–16.2317.35–32.56actual15.009.0024.00
Offsides
50%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.493.51safe0.80–3.220.33–2.661.13–5.88safer0.46–3.570.00–2.990.46–6.55actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
30%
18%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.804.98safe1.12–3.231.68–3.922.81–7.16safer0.85–3.511.39–4.212.24–7.72actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
16%
13%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.923.755.67safe0.51–3.332.19–5.302.70–8.63safer0.12–3.721.76–5.731.88–9.46actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.64 0.45–2.90 | 2.00 | 0.94 0.08–1.80 0.00–2.05 | 4.00 | 2.62 0.79–4.44 0.29–4.95 | 6.00 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.43 3.57–7.28 3.07–7.78 | 4.00 | 2.47 0.76–4.17 0.29–4.64 | 7.00 | 7.89 4.33–11.45 3.36–12.42 | 11.00 | 81% |
| Total shots | 15.10 11.40–18.81 10.37–19.84 | 13.00 | 7.50 4.12–10.88 3.19–11.81 | 15.00 | 22.60 15.52–29.68 13.56–31.65 | 28.00 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 6.32–11.35 5.45–12.22 | 5.00 | 5.46 3.16–7.76 2.36–8.56 | 9.00 | 14.30 9.48–19.11 7.82–20.78 | 14.00 | 78% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.39–5.55 1.85–6.09 | 6.00 | 2.27 0.86–3.69 0.37–4.17 | 3.00 | 6.24 3.24–9.24 2.22–10.26 | 9.00 | 68% 13% 19% |
| Corners | 6.09 3.89–8.30 3.29–8.89 | 4.00 | 3.63 1.65–5.61 1.11–6.14 | 3.00 | 9.72 5.54–13.90 4.40–15.04 | 7.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 55.40 49.08–61.71 47.48–63.31 | 56.00 | 45.22 38.90–51.54 37.30–53.13 | 44.00 | — | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 506 441–572 423–589 | 591 | 395 331–460 313–477 | 462 | 901 772–1031 736–1067 | 1053 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.64 69.42–77.85 68.12–79.16 | — | 68.68 64.18–73.19 62.84–74.52 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.59 9.73–15.45 8.85–16.33 | 15.00 | 12.37 9.42–15.31 8.50–16.23 | 9.00 | 24.96 19.15–30.76 17.35–32.56 | 24.00 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.80–3.22 0.46–3.57 | 3.00 | 1.49 0.33–2.66 0.00–2.99 | 1.00 | 3.51 1.13–5.88 0.46–6.55 | 4.00 | 50% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.12–3.23 0.85–3.51 | 0.00 | 2.80 1.68–3.92 1.39–4.21 | 2.00 | 4.98 2.81–7.16 2.24–7.72 | 2.00 | 30% 18% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 1.92 0.51–3.33 0.12–3.72 | 3.00 | 3.75 2.19–5.30 1.76–5.73 | 2.00 | 5.67 2.70–8.63 1.88–9.46 | 5.00 | 16% 13% 71% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+