Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.310.783.10safe1.35–3.280.00–1.641.27–4.92safer1.09–3.540.00–1.890.77–5.43actual4.001.005.00
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.822.799.62safe4.97–8.681.09–4.506.05–13.18safer4.47–9.180.62–4.975.08–14.15actual7.002.009.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction17.547.7025.24safe13.84–21.254.32–11.0718.16–32.32safer12.81–22.283.39–12.0016.19–34.28actual16.005.0021.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.344.9017.25safe9.83–14.862.60–7.2012.43–22.07safer8.96–15.731.80–8.0010.77–23.73actual12.004.0016.00
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.491.886.37safe2.91–6.080.46–3.293.37–9.37safer2.38–6.610.00–3.782.35–10.39actual3.002.005.00
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction6.602.879.47safe4.40–8.810.89–4.855.29–13.66safer3.80–9.400.35–5.394.16–14.79actual6.002.008.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction59.7138.97safe53.40–66.0332.65–45.29safer51.80–67.6331.06–46.89actual64.0036.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction6464281074safe581–712363–492944–1204safer563–729345–510909–1239actual620347967
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction84.7770.08safe80.56–88.9965.57–74.59safer79.26–90.2964.24–75.92
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3111.1521.46safe7.45–13.178.21–14.1015.66–27.27safer6.57–14.057.29–15.0213.86–29.07actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
54%
20%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.301.593.90safe1.09–3.510.43–2.761.53–6.27safer0.75–3.860.10–3.090.85–6.95actual5.000.005.00
Yellow cards
21%
21%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.192.113.29safe0.13–2.240.99–3.231.12–5.47safer0.00–2.520.70–3.520.56–6.03actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.070.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.410.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
15%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction2.124.206.31safe0.70–3.532.64–5.753.35–9.28safer0.31–3.922.21–6.182.52–10.10actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.31 1.35–3.28 1.09–3.54 | 4.00 | 0.78 0.00–1.64 0.00–1.89 | 1.00 | 3.10 1.27–4.92 0.77–5.43 | 5.00 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.82 4.97–8.68 4.47–9.18 | 7.00 | 2.79 1.09–4.50 0.62–4.97 | 2.00 | 9.62 6.05–13.18 5.08–14.15 | 9.00 | 88% |
| Total shots | 17.54 13.84–21.25 12.81–22.28 | 16.00 | 7.70 4.32–11.07 3.39–12.00 | 5.00 | 25.24 18.16–32.32 16.19–34.28 | 21.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 12.34 9.83–14.86 8.96–15.73 | 12.00 | 4.90 2.60–7.20 1.80–8.00 | 4.00 | 17.25 12.43–22.07 10.77–23.73 | 16.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.49 2.91–6.08 2.38–6.61 | 3.00 | 1.88 0.46–3.29 0.00–3.78 | 2.00 | 6.37 3.37–9.37 2.35–10.39 | 5.00 | 80% |
| Corners | 6.60 4.40–8.81 3.80–9.40 | 6.00 | 2.87 0.89–4.85 0.35–5.39 | 2.00 | 9.47 5.29–13.66 4.16–14.79 | 8.00 | 86% |
| Possession % | 59.71 53.40–66.03 51.80–67.63 | 64.00 | 38.97 32.65–45.29 31.06–46.89 | 36.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 646 581–712 563–729 | 620 | 428 363–492 345–510 | 347 | 1074 944–1204 909–1239 | 967 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.77 80.56–88.99 79.26–90.29 | — | 70.08 65.57–74.59 64.24–75.92 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.31 7.45–13.17 6.57–14.05 | 9.00 | 11.15 8.21–14.10 7.29–15.02 | 10.00 | 21.46 15.66–27.27 13.86–29.07 | 19.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.30 1.09–3.51 0.75–3.86 | 5.00 | 1.59 0.43–2.76 0.10–3.09 | 0.00 | 3.90 1.53–6.27 0.85–6.95 | 5.00 | 54% 20% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.19 0.13–2.24 0.00–2.52 | 1.00 | 2.11 0.99–3.23 0.70–3.52 | 4.00 | 3.29 1.12–5.47 0.56–6.03 | 5.00 | 21% 21% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.12 0.70–3.53 0.31–3.92 | 1.00 | 4.20 2.64–5.75 2.21–6.18 | 3.00 | 6.31 3.35–9.28 2.52–10.10 | 4.00 | 15% 74% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.