Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Halil Umut Meler
Goals
22%
22%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.933.05safe0.16–2.081.07–2.791.23–4.87safer0.00–2.350.82–3.030.72–5.38actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction3.616.6910.30safe1.76–5.474.98–8.396.73–13.86safer1.26–5.974.51–8.865.77–14.83actual2.007.009.00
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2817.4327.71safe6.58–13.9914.05–20.8120.63–34.79safer5.55–15.0213.12–21.7418.67–36.75actual6.0022.0028.00
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3110.5017.81safe4.80–9.838.20–12.8012.99–22.63safer3.93–10.697.40–13.6011.33–24.29actual4.0012.0016.00
Blocked shots
29%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.394.447.83safe1.80–4.973.03–5.864.83–10.83safer1.27–5.512.54–6.343.81–11.85actual3.005.008.00
Corners
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.826.3310.15safe1.61–6.024.36–8.315.97–14.33safer1.02–6.623.82–8.854.83–15.47actual1.006.007.00
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.2862.21safe30.96–43.5955.89–68.53safer29.36–45.1954.30–70.13actual34.0066.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction325541866safe260–390477–606737–996safer242–408459–624701–1032actual3436691012
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction63.1775.96safe58.95–67.3871.46–80.47safer57.65–68.6870.13–81.80
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8010.5822.38safe8.94–14.667.64–13.5316.58–28.18safer8.06–15.546.72–14.4514.78–29.99actual9.0012.0021.00
Offsides
55%
20%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.221.453.67safe1.01–3.430.29–2.611.30–6.04safer0.66–3.770.00–2.950.62–6.72actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.723.53safe0.76–2.870.60–2.841.36–5.71safer0.49–3.150.31–3.130.80–6.27actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.79actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.272.296.56safe2.85–5.680.74–3.843.59–9.53safer2.46–6.070.31–4.282.77–10.35actual4.002.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.16–2.08 0.00–2.35 | 0.00 | 1.93 1.07–2.79 0.82–3.03 | 2.00 | 3.05 1.23–4.87 0.72–5.38 | 2.00 | 22% 22% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.76–5.47 1.26–5.97 | 2.00 | 6.69 4.98–8.39 4.51–8.86 | 7.00 | 10.30 6.73–13.86 5.77–14.83 | 9.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 10.28 6.58–13.99 5.55–15.02 | 6.00 | 17.43 14.05–20.81 13.12–21.74 | 22.00 | 27.71 20.63–34.79 18.67–36.75 | 28.00 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 7.31 4.80–9.83 3.93–10.69 | 4.00 | 10.50 8.20–12.80 7.40–13.60 | 12.00 | 17.81 12.99–22.63 11.33–24.29 | 16.00 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.80–4.97 1.27–5.51 | 3.00 | 4.44 3.03–5.86 2.54–6.34 | 5.00 | 7.83 4.83–10.83 3.81–11.85 | 8.00 | 29% 14% 58% |
| Corners | 3.82 1.61–6.02 1.02–6.62 | 1.00 | 6.33 4.36–8.31 3.82–8.85 | 6.00 | 10.15 5.97–14.33 4.83–15.47 | 7.00 | 17% 74% |
| Possession % | 37.28 30.96–43.59 29.36–45.19 | 34.00 | 62.21 55.89–68.53 54.30–70.13 | 66.00 | — | — | 93% |
| Passes | 325 260–390 242–408 | 343 | 541 477–606 459–624 | 669 | 866 737–996 701–1032 | 1012 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.17 58.95–67.38 57.65–68.68 | — | 75.96 71.46–80.47 70.13–81.80 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 11.80 8.94–14.66 8.06–15.54 | 9.00 | 10.58 7.64–13.53 6.72–14.45 | 12.00 | 22.38 16.58–28.18 14.78–29.99 | 21.00 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.22 1.01–3.43 0.66–3.77 | 2.00 | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.95 | 3.00 | 3.67 1.30–6.04 0.62–6.72 | 5.00 | 55% 20% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.76–2.87 0.49–3.15 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.60–2.84 0.31–3.13 | 1.00 | 3.53 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 1.00 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 1.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 4.27 2.85–5.68 2.46–6.07 | 4.00 | 2.29 0.74–3.84 0.31–4.28 | 2.00 | 6.56 3.59–9.53 2.77–10.35 | 6.00 | 72% 16% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.