UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mihaly Kapraly
Goals
26%
28%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction0.941.362.31safe0.00–1.910.50–2.220.48–4.13safer0.00–2.170.26–2.470.00–4.64actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.984.328.30safe2.12–5.832.61–6.034.74–11.86safer1.62–6.332.15–6.503.77–12.83actual1.008.009.00
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7411.8622.60safe7.03–14.448.48–15.2415.51–29.68safer6.00–15.477.55–16.1713.55–31.64actual6.0014.0020.00
Shots in box
29%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction6.848.4815.32safe4.32–9.366.18–10.7810.50–20.14safer3.46–10.225.38–11.588.84–21.80actual3.009.0012.00
Blocked shots
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.735.48safe1.16–4.331.31–4.142.48–8.47safer0.63–4.870.83–4.631.46–9.50actual1.002.003.00
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.355.089.43safe2.14–6.563.10–7.055.24–13.61safer1.55–7.152.56–7.594.11–14.74actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
84%
homeawayprediction41.5358.47safe35.22–47.8552.15–64.79safer33.62–49.4550.56–66.39actual28.0072.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction354510864safe289–420445–575735–994safer271–437428–592699–1030actual248656904
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction67.2975.00safe63.07–71.5070.49–79.50safer61.77–72.8169.16–80.83
Fouls
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7811.8625.64safe10.93–16.648.91–14.8019.84–31.45safer10.04–17.538.00–15.7218.04–33.25actual6.0014.0020.00
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.643.41safe0.56–2.980.48–2.801.03–5.78safer0.21–3.320.14–3.130.36–6.45actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
45%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.924.13safe1.15–3.270.80–3.041.96–6.31safer0.88–3.540.51–3.331.39–6.87actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
45%
18%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.555.32safe1.36–4.190.99–4.102.36–8.29safer0.97–4.580.56–4.531.53–9.11actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 0.00–1.91 0.00–2.17 | 0.00 | 1.36 0.50–2.22 0.26–2.47 | 3.00 | 2.31 0.48–4.13 0.00–4.64 | 3.00 | 26% 28% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.12–5.83 1.62–6.33 | 1.00 | 4.32 2.61–6.03 2.15–6.50 | 8.00 | 8.30 4.74–11.86 3.77–12.83 | 9.00 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 10.74 7.03–14.44 6.00–15.47 | 6.00 | 11.86 8.48–15.24 7.55–16.17 | 14.00 | 22.60 15.51–29.68 13.55–31.64 | 20.00 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 6.84 4.32–9.36 3.46–10.22 | 3.00 | 8.48 6.18–10.78 5.38–11.58 | 9.00 | 15.32 10.50–20.14 8.84–21.80 | 12.00 | 29% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 2.75 1.16–4.33 0.63–4.87 | 1.00 | 2.73 1.31–4.14 0.83–4.63 | 2.00 | 5.48 2.48–8.47 1.46–9.50 | 3.00 | 42% 17% 41% |
| Corners | 4.35 2.14–6.56 1.55–7.15 | 5.00 | 5.08 3.10–7.05 2.56–7.59 | 6.00 | 9.43 5.24–13.61 4.11–14.74 | 11.00 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 41.53 35.22–47.85 33.62–49.45 | 28.00 | 58.47 52.15–64.79 50.56–66.39 | 72.00 | — | — | 84% |
| Passes | 354 289–420 271–437 | 248 | 510 445–575 428–592 | 656 | 864 735–994 699–1030 | 904 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.29 63.07–71.50 61.77–72.81 | — | 75.00 70.49–79.50 69.16–80.83 | — | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 13.78 10.93–16.64 10.04–17.53 | 6.00 | 11.86 8.91–14.80 8.00–15.72 | 14.00 | 25.64 19.84–31.45 18.04–33.25 | 20.00 | 61% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.56–2.98 0.21–3.32 | 1.00 | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.14–3.13 | 2.00 | 3.41 1.03–5.78 0.36–6.45 | 3.00 | 41% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.15–3.27 0.88–3.54 | 1.00 | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | 1.00 | 4.13 1.96–6.31 1.39–6.87 | 2.00 | 45% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.36–4.19 0.97–4.58 | 5.00 | 2.55 0.99–4.10 0.56–4.53 | 1.00 | 5.32 2.36–8.29 1.53–9.11 | 6.00 | 45% 18% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.