Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Nikola Dabanovic
Goals
60%
23%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.770.832.59safe0.80–2.730.00–1.690.77–4.42safer0.54–2.990.00–1.930.26–4.92actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
62%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.963.538.49safe3.11–6.821.82–5.244.93–12.06safer2.61–7.321.35–5.713.96–13.02actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction13.148.6421.78safe9.43–16.845.26–12.0214.70–28.86safer8.40–17.874.33–12.9512.74–30.82actual9.009.0018.00
Shots in box
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.656.2815.92safe7.13–12.163.97–8.5811.10–20.74safer6.27–13.033.18–9.379.44–22.40actual6.007.0013.00
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.372.747.11safe2.79–5.961.32–4.154.11–10.11safer2.26–6.490.84–4.643.09–11.13actual2.003.005.00
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.593.439.02safe3.38–7.791.46–5.414.84–13.20safer2.79–8.390.92–5.953.70–14.34actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction57.0242.29safe50.70–63.3435.98–48.61safer49.11–64.9434.38–50.21actual61.0039.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction576382959safe511–642318–447829–1089safer493–659300–464794–1124actual539343882
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction76.1866.86safe71.97–80.4062.35–71.37safer70.67–81.7061.02–72.70
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3413.8324.18safe7.49–13.2010.89–16.7818.37–29.98safer6.60–14.099.97–17.7016.57–31.78actual18.0014.0032.00
Offsides
32%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.863.41safe0.34–2.760.70–3.021.04–5.78safer0.00–3.100.37–3.360.36–6.46actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.352.203.55safe0.29–2.411.08–3.321.37–5.72safer0.02–2.680.79–3.610.81–6.29actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.450.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.913.095.00safe0.50–3.331.54–4.642.04–7.97safer0.11–3.721.10–5.081.21–8.79actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.73 0.54–2.99 | 0.00 | 0.83 0.00–1.69 0.00–1.93 | 0.00 | 2.59 0.77–4.42 0.26–4.92 | 0.00 | 60% 23% 17% |
| Shots on target | 4.96 3.11–6.82 2.61–7.32 | 2.00 | 3.53 1.82–5.24 1.35–5.71 | 3.00 | 8.49 4.93–12.06 3.96–13.02 | 5.00 | 62% 25% |
| Total shots | 13.14 9.43–16.84 8.40–17.87 | 9.00 | 8.64 5.26–12.02 4.33–12.95 | 9.00 | 21.78 14.70–28.86 12.74–30.82 | 18.00 | 80% 14% |
| Shots in box | 9.65 7.13–12.16 6.27–13.03 | 6.00 | 6.28 3.97–8.58 3.18–9.37 | 7.00 | 15.92 11.10–20.74 9.44–22.40 | 13.00 | 76% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 2.79–5.96 2.26–6.49 | 2.00 | 2.74 1.32–4.15 0.84–4.64 | 3.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.11 3.09–11.13 | 5.00 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.79 2.79–8.39 | 8.00 | 3.43 1.46–5.41 0.92–5.95 | 2.00 | 9.02 4.84–13.20 3.70–14.34 | 10.00 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 57.02 50.70–63.34 49.11–64.94 | 61.00 | 42.29 35.98–48.61 34.38–50.21 | 39.00 | — | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 576 511–642 493–659 | 539 | 382 318–447 300–464 | 343 | 959 829–1089 794–1124 | 882 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.18 71.97–80.40 70.67–81.70 | — | 66.86 62.35–71.37 61.02–72.70 | — | — | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.34 7.49–13.20 6.60–14.09 | 18.00 | 13.83 10.89–16.78 9.97–17.70 | 14.00 | 24.18 18.37–29.98 16.57–31.78 | 32.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.34–2.76 0.00–3.10 | 1.00 | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.37–3.36 | 3.00 | 3.41 1.04–5.78 0.36–6.46 | 4.00 | 32% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 0.29–2.41 0.02–2.68 | 2.00 | 2.20 1.08–3.32 0.79–3.61 | 2.00 | 3.55 1.37–5.72 0.81–6.29 | 4.00 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.91 0.50–3.33 0.11–3.72 | 3.00 | 3.09 1.54–4.64 1.10–5.08 | 2.00 | 5.00 2.04–7.97 1.21–8.79 | 5.00 | 22% 16% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.