UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Patrik Kolaric
Goals
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.310.843.14safe1.34–3.270.00–1.701.32–4.96safer1.08–3.530.00–1.940.81–5.47actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.163.439.59safe4.30–8.011.72–5.146.02–13.15safer3.80–8.511.25–5.605.06–14.12actual8.002.0010.00
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.148.7624.90safe12.44–19.845.38–12.1417.82–31.98safer11.41–20.874.45–13.0715.86–33.94actual17.003.0020.00
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.426.3216.73safe7.90–12.934.01–8.6211.91–21.55safer7.04–13.803.22–9.4110.25–23.21actual10.001.0011.00
Blocked shots
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.692.657.34safe3.11–6.271.24–4.064.34–10.34safer2.57–6.810.75–4.553.32–11.36actual6.000.006.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.153.449.59safe3.95–8.361.46–5.425.41–13.78safer3.35–8.950.93–5.964.28–14.91actual8.001.009.00
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3343.17safe51.01–63.6536.85–49.49safer49.42–65.2535.25–51.08actual75.0025.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction561423984safe496–626358–488854–1114safer478–644341–505819–1149actual703237940
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction80.0275.67safe75.81–84.2471.17–80.18safer74.51–85.5469.84–81.51
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9712.6823.65safe8.12–13.839.73–15.6217.85–29.45safer7.23–14.718.81–16.5416.04–31.25actual8.0018.0026.00
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.323.01safe0.48–2.900.16–2.490.64–5.38safer0.13–3.240.00–2.820.00–6.06actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
32%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.013.65safe0.59–2.700.89–3.131.47–5.83safer0.32–2.970.60–3.420.91–6.39actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.250.00–0.45safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.755.96safe0.79–3.622.20–5.312.99–8.92safer0.40–4.011.77–5.742.17–9.74actual1.006.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.31 1.34–3.27 1.08–3.53 | 2.00 | 0.84 0.00–1.70 0.00–1.94 | 1.00 | 3.14 1.32–4.96 0.81–5.47 | 3.00 | 70% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.16 4.30–8.01 3.80–8.51 | 8.00 | 3.43 1.72–5.14 1.25–5.60 | 2.00 | 9.59 6.02–13.15 5.06–14.12 | 10.00 | 77% 14% |
| Total shots | 16.14 12.44–19.84 11.41–20.87 | 17.00 | 8.76 5.38–12.14 4.45–13.07 | 3.00 | 24.90 17.82–31.98 15.86–33.94 | 20.00 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 10.42 7.90–12.93 7.04–13.80 | 10.00 | 6.32 4.01–8.62 3.22–9.41 | 1.00 | 16.73 11.91–21.55 10.25–23.21 | 11.00 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 4.69 3.11–6.27 2.57–6.81 | 6.00 | 2.65 1.24–4.06 0.75–4.55 | 0.00 | 7.34 4.34–10.34 3.32–11.36 | 6.00 | 72% 17% |
| Corners | 6.15 3.95–8.36 3.35–8.95 | 8.00 | 3.44 1.46–5.42 0.93–5.96 | 1.00 | 9.59 5.41–13.78 4.28–14.91 | 9.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 57.33 51.01–63.65 49.42–65.25 | 75.00 | 43.17 36.85–49.49 35.25–51.08 | 25.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 561 496–626 478–644 | 703 | 423 358–488 341–505 | 237 | 984 854–1114 819–1149 | 940 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.02 75.81–84.24 74.51–85.54 | — | 75.67 71.17–80.18 69.84–81.51 | — | — | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.12–13.83 7.23–14.71 | 8.00 | 12.68 9.73–15.62 8.81–16.54 | 18.00 | 23.65 17.85–29.45 16.04–31.25 | 26.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.13–3.24 | 3.00 | 1.32 0.16–2.49 0.00–2.82 | 0.00 | 3.01 0.64–5.38 0.00–6.06 | 3.00 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.59–2.70 0.32–2.97 | 2.00 | 2.01 0.89–3.13 0.60–3.42 | 2.00 | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.39 | 4.00 | 32% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.79–3.62 0.40–4.01 | 1.00 | 3.75 2.20–5.31 1.77–5.74 | 6.00 | 5.96 2.99–8.92 2.17–9.74 | 7.00 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+