UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·
UEFA Nations League·League C - 2·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Julian Weinberger
Goals
37%
31%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.030.931.96safe0.06–1.990.08–1.790.14–3.78safer0.00–2.250.00–2.040.00–4.29actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.137.12safe2.14–5.851.42–4.843.56–10.69safer1.64–6.350.96–5.312.59–11.66actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction12.259.1921.44safe8.55–15.955.81–12.5714.36–28.52safer7.52–16.984.88–13.5012.39–30.48actual22.006.0028.00
Shots in box
56%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction7.316.2413.55safe4.79–9.833.94–8.548.73–18.37safer3.93–10.693.14–9.347.07–20.03actual13.005.0018.00
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.475.74safe1.68–4.851.06–3.892.74–8.74safer1.15–5.380.57–4.381.72–9.76actual8.003.0011.00
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.049.05safe2.80–7.212.06–6.024.86–13.23safer2.20–7.801.53–6.563.73–14.36actual7.002.009.00
Possession %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction54.3446.27safe48.02–60.6539.96–52.59safer46.42–62.2538.36–54.19actual70.0030.00
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction469401870safe403–534337–466740–1000safer386–552319–483705–1035actual601263864
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction70.8070.34safe66.59–75.0265.83–74.84safer65.28–76.3264.50–76.17
Fouls
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9911.2724.25safe10.13–15.848.32–14.2118.45–30.05safer9.24–16.737.40–15.1316.65–31.86actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.693.39safe0.49–2.910.53–2.851.02–5.76safer0.15–3.250.19–3.180.34–6.44actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.064.28safe1.17–3.280.93–3.182.10–6.45safer0.89–3.550.64–3.471.54–7.02actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
18%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.152.644.80safe0.74–3.571.09–4.201.83–7.76safer0.35–3.960.66–4.631.01–8.58actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–1.99 0.00–2.25 | 1.00 | 0.93 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.04 | 1.00 | 1.96 0.14–3.78 0.00–4.29 | 2.00 | 37% 31% 32% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.14–5.85 1.64–6.35 | 4.00 | 3.13 1.42–4.84 0.96–5.31 | 1.00 | 7.12 3.56–10.69 2.59–11.66 | 5.00 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Total shots | 12.25 8.55–15.95 7.52–16.98 | 22.00 | 9.19 5.81–12.57 4.88–13.50 | 6.00 | 21.44 14.36–28.52 12.39–30.48 | 28.00 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 7.31 4.79–9.83 3.93–10.69 | 13.00 | 6.24 3.94–8.54 3.14–9.34 | 5.00 | 13.55 8.73–18.37 7.07–20.03 | 18.00 | 56% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.68–4.85 1.15–5.38 | 8.00 | 2.47 1.06–3.89 0.57–4.38 | 3.00 | 5.74 2.74–8.74 1.72–9.76 | 11.00 | 55% 16% 29% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.80–7.21 2.20–7.80 | 7.00 | 4.04 2.06–6.02 1.53–6.56 | 2.00 | 9.05 4.86–13.23 3.73–14.36 | 9.00 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 54.34 48.02–60.65 46.42–62.25 | 70.00 | 46.27 39.96–52.59 38.36–54.19 | 30.00 | — | — | 67% 28% |
| Passes | 469 403–534 386–552 | 601 | 401 337–466 319–483 | 263 | 870 740–1000 705–1035 | 864 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.80 66.59–75.02 65.28–76.32 | — | 70.34 65.83–74.84 64.50–76.17 | — | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 12.99 10.13–15.84 9.24–16.73 | 12.00 | 11.27 8.32–14.21 7.40–15.13 | 11.00 | 24.25 18.45–30.05 16.65–31.86 | 23.00 | 60% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.15–3.25 | 1.00 | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.19–3.18 | 1.00 | 3.39 1.02–5.76 0.34–6.44 | 2.00 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.28 0.89–3.55 | 0.00 | 2.06 0.93–3.18 0.64–3.47 | 1.00 | 4.28 2.10–6.45 1.54–7.02 | 1.00 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.15 0.74–3.57 0.35–3.96 | 0.00 | 2.64 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.63 | 3.00 | 4.80 1.83–7.76 1.01–8.58 | 3.00 | 32% 18% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.