Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Goga Kikacheishvili
Goals
57%
24%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.670.842.51safe0.71–2.630.00–1.700.68–4.33safer0.45–2.890.00–1.940.18–4.83actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.193.098.28safe3.33–7.041.39–4.804.72–11.84safer2.83–7.540.92–5.273.75–12.81actual2.002.004.00
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction14.708.4923.19safe11.00–18.405.11–11.8616.10–30.27safer9.97–19.434.18–12.8014.14–32.23actual17.006.0023.00
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction8.875.5714.43safe6.35–11.393.26–7.879.62–19.25safer5.49–12.252.47–8.667.96–20.91actual7.001.008.00
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.092.416.50safe2.51–5.670.99–3.823.50–9.50safer1.97–6.210.51–4.312.48–10.52actual9.002.0011.00
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.973.039.00safe3.76–8.171.06–5.014.82–13.19safer3.17–8.770.52–5.553.69–14.32actual6.006.0012.00
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction61.2837.35safe54.96–67.5931.03–43.67safer53.36–69.1929.43–45.26actual55.0045.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction538333872safe473–603269–398742–1001safer455–621251–416706–1037actual447356803
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction75.9866.40safe71.76–80.1961.90–70.91safer70.46–81.4960.57–72.24
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3713.4924.86safe8.51–14.2210.55–16.4419.06–30.66safer7.62–15.119.63–17.3617.25–32.47actual9.0026.0035.00
Offsides
41%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.014.07safe0.85–3.270.85–3.171.70–6.44safer0.51–3.610.51–3.501.02–7.12actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.464.32safe0.81–2.921.34–3.582.15–6.50safer0.54–3.191.05–3.871.58–7.06actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.695.87safe0.76–3.592.14–5.252.90–8.84safer0.37–3.981.71–5.682.08–9.66actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.71–2.63 0.45–2.89 | 0.00 | 0.84 0.00–1.70 0.00–1.94 | 0.00 | 2.51 0.68–4.33 0.18–4.83 | 0.00 | 57% 24% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.19 3.33–7.04 2.83–7.54 | 2.00 | 3.09 1.39–4.80 0.92–5.27 | 2.00 | 8.28 4.72–11.84 3.75–12.81 | 4.00 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 14.70 11.00–18.40 9.97–19.43 | 17.00 | 8.49 5.11–11.86 4.18–12.80 | 6.00 | 23.19 16.10–30.27 14.14–32.23 | 23.00 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 8.87 6.35–11.39 5.49–12.25 | 7.00 | 5.57 3.26–7.87 2.47–8.66 | 1.00 | 14.43 9.62–19.25 7.96–20.91 | 8.00 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 2.51–5.67 1.97–6.21 | 9.00 | 2.41 0.99–3.82 0.51–4.31 | 2.00 | 6.50 3.50–9.50 2.48–10.52 | 11.00 | 68% 13% 19% |
| Corners | 5.97 3.76–8.17 3.17–8.77 | 6.00 | 3.03 1.06–5.01 0.52–5.55 | 6.00 | 9.00 4.82–13.19 3.69–14.32 | 12.00 | 79% |
| Possession % | 61.28 54.96–67.59 53.36–69.19 | 55.00 | 37.35 31.03–43.67 29.43–45.26 | 45.00 | — | — | 93% |
| Passes | 538 473–603 455–621 | 447 | 333 269–398 251–416 | 356 | 872 742–1001 706–1037 | 803 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.98 71.76–80.19 70.46–81.49 | — | 66.40 61.90–70.91 60.57–72.24 | — | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.37 8.51–14.22 7.62–15.11 | 9.00 | 13.49 10.55–16.44 9.63–17.36 | 26.00 | 24.86 19.06–30.66 17.25–32.47 | 35.00 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.85–3.27 0.51–3.61 | 0.00 | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.51–3.50 | 3.00 | 4.07 1.70–6.44 1.02–7.12 | 3.00 | 41% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.92 0.54–3.19 | 3.00 | 2.46 1.34–3.58 1.05–3.87 | 2.00 | 4.32 2.15–6.50 1.58–7.06 | 5.00 | 30% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.76–3.59 0.37–3.98 | 1.00 | 3.69 2.14–5.25 1.71–5.68 | 2.00 | 5.87 2.90–8.84 2.08–9.66 | 3.00 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.