Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
28%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.292.34safe0.08–2.020.44–2.150.52–4.16safer0.00–2.270.21–2.370.04–4.64
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.324.758.07safe1.46–5.183.01–6.494.47–11.68safer0.97–5.672.54–6.963.51–12.63
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2114.6423.85safe5.29–13.1411.08–18.2016.36–31.34safer4.20–14.2310.12–19.1614.31–33.39
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction5.828.3514.17safe2.87–8.765.67–11.038.55–19.79safer2.04–9.594.94–11.776.98–21.36
Blocked shots
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.323.696.01safe0.44–4.202.04–5.342.48–9.55safer0.00–4.751.55–5.841.44–10.58
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.099.06safe1.76–6.193.08–7.094.85–13.28safer1.19–6.762.55–7.623.74–14.38
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction42.9257.22safe36.13–49.7150.44–64.01safer34.46–51.3848.77–65.68
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction396520916safe329–463453–586782–1049safer311–481436–604746–1085
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction67.2877.22safe63.26–71.3172.90–81.55safer61.96–72.6171.59–82.86
Fouls
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6112.0728.69safe13.78–19.459.13–15.0222.90–34.47safer13.02–20.218.38–15.7621.40–35.97
Offsides
47%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.191.803.99safe1.03–3.350.71–2.891.73–6.24safer0.73–3.650.42–3.181.14–6.83
Yellow cards
44%
20%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.054.34safe1.23–3.330.93–3.182.16–6.51safer0.97–3.600.63–3.471.60–7.07
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.405.74safe1.91–4.780.84–3.962.75–8.73safer1.52–5.170.42–4.381.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.08–2.02 0.00–2.27 | 1.29 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.37 | 2.34 0.52–4.16 0.04–4.64 | 30% 28% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.32 1.46–5.18 0.97–5.67 | 4.75 3.01–6.49 2.54–6.96 | 8.07 4.47–11.68 3.51–12.63 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 9.21 5.29–13.14 4.20–14.23 | 14.64 11.08–18.20 10.12–19.16 | 23.85 16.36–31.34 14.31–33.39 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 5.82 2.87–8.76 2.04–9.59 | 8.35 5.67–11.03 4.94–11.77 | 14.17 8.55–19.79 6.98–21.36 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.32 0.44–4.20 0.00–4.75 | 3.69 2.04–5.34 1.55–5.84 | 6.01 2.48–9.55 1.44–10.58 | 22% 14% 64% |
| Corners | 3.98 1.76–6.19 1.19–6.76 | 5.09 3.08–7.09 2.55–7.62 | 9.06 4.85–13.28 3.74–14.38 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 42.92 36.13–49.71 34.46–51.38 | 57.22 50.44–64.01 48.77–65.68 | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 396 329–463 311–481 | 520 453–586 436–604 | 916 782–1049 746–1085 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.28 63.26–71.31 61.96–72.61 | 77.22 72.90–81.55 71.59–82.86 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 16.61 13.78–19.45 13.02–20.21 | 12.07 9.13–15.02 8.38–15.76 | 28.69 22.90–34.47 21.40–35.97 | 78% 17% |
| Offsides | 2.19 1.03–3.35 0.73–3.65 | 1.80 0.71–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 3.99 1.73–6.24 1.14–6.83 | 47% 20% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.23–3.33 0.97–3.60 | 2.05 0.93–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 4.34 2.16–6.51 1.60–7.07 | 44% 20% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 2.40 0.84–3.96 0.42–4.38 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.94–9.55 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+