UEFA Nations League·League D - 3·
UEFA Nations League·League D - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Christian-Petru Ciochirca
Goals
51%
27%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.470.872.34safe0.50–2.440.02–1.730.52–4.16safer0.25–2.690.00–1.950.04–4.64actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.882.997.87safe3.02–6.751.25–4.734.27–11.48safer2.53–7.240.78–5.203.31–12.43actual5.000.005.00
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction13.659.2722.91safe9.72–17.575.70–12.8315.42–30.40safer8.63–18.664.74–13.7913.37–32.45actual25.004.0029.00
Shots in box
80%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction8.314.8313.14safe5.37–11.252.15–7.517.51–18.76safer4.54–12.081.41–8.255.95–20.33actual16.002.0018.00
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.636.12safe1.60–5.370.98–4.292.59–9.66safer1.06–5.910.49–4.781.55–10.69actual5.002.007.00
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.453.408.85safe3.24–7.671.40–5.404.64–13.06safer2.67–8.240.87–5.933.53–14.17actual7.000.007.00
Possession %
73%
24%
homeawayprediction55.3044.18safe48.51–62.0937.39–50.96safer46.84–63.7635.72–52.63actual74.0026.00
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction498375874safe431–565309–442740–1007safer413–584291–459704–1043actual672228900
Pass accuracy %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction71.9468.96safe67.91–75.9764.64–73.29safer66.62–77.2663.33–74.60
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3314.6028.94safe11.50–17.1711.66–17.5523.16–34.72safer10.74–17.9310.91–18.3021.65–36.22actual7.0016.0023.00
Offsides
41%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.883.86safe0.82–3.140.79–2.971.61–6.11safer0.52–3.440.50–3.261.02–6.70actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.074.18safe1.07–3.160.94–3.202.01–6.36safer0.81–3.420.65–3.481.46–6.91actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.263.215.47safe0.82–3.691.66–4.772.48–8.47safer0.43–4.081.23–5.201.67–9.28actual0.005.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 0.00 | 0.87 0.02–1.73 0.00–1.95 | 0.00 | 2.34 0.52–4.16 0.04–4.64 | 0.00 | 51% 27% 22% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.02–6.75 2.53–7.24 | 5.00 | 2.99 1.25–4.73 0.78–5.20 | 0.00 | 7.87 4.27–11.48 3.31–12.43 | 5.00 | 69% 19% |
| Total shots | 13.65 9.72–17.57 8.63–18.66 | 25.00 | 9.27 5.70–12.83 4.74–13.79 | 4.00 | 22.91 15.42–30.40 13.37–32.45 | 29.00 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 8.31 5.37–11.25 4.54–12.08 | 16.00 | 4.83 2.15–7.51 1.41–8.25 | 2.00 | 13.14 7.51–18.76 5.95–20.33 | 18.00 | 80% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.60–5.37 1.06–5.91 | 5.00 | 2.63 0.98–4.29 0.49–4.78 | 2.00 | 6.12 2.59–9.66 1.55–10.69 | 7.00 | 55% 16% 29% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.24–7.67 2.67–8.24 | 7.00 | 3.40 1.40–5.40 0.87–5.93 | 0.00 | 8.85 4.64–13.06 3.53–14.17 | 7.00 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 55.30 48.51–62.09 46.84–63.76 | 74.00 | 44.18 37.39–50.96 35.72–52.63 | 26.00 | — | — | 73% 24% |
| Passes | 498 431–565 413–584 | 672 | 375 309–442 291–459 | 228 | 874 740–1007 704–1043 | 900 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.94 67.91–75.97 66.62–77.26 | — | 68.96 64.64–73.29 63.33–74.60 | — | — | — | 63% 33% |
| Fouls | 14.33 11.50–17.17 10.74–17.93 | 7.00 | 14.60 11.66–17.55 10.91–18.30 | 16.00 | 28.94 23.16–34.72 21.65–36.22 | 23.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 3.00 | 1.88 0.79–2.97 0.50–3.26 | 0.00 | 3.86 1.61–6.11 1.02–6.70 | 3.00 | 41% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.16 0.81–3.42 | 2.00 | 2.07 0.94–3.20 0.65–3.48 | 3.00 | 4.18 2.01–6.36 1.46–6.91 | 5.00 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.82–3.69 0.43–4.08 | 0.00 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.20 | 5.00 | 5.47 2.48–8.47 1.67–9.28 | 5.00 | 26% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.