UEFA Nations League·League D - 5·
UEFA Nations League·League D - 5·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
26%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.472.45safe0.01–1.950.62–2.330.63–4.28safer0.00–2.200.39–2.560.15–4.76
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.334.918.24safe1.47–5.193.17–6.654.64–11.85safer0.98–5.682.70–7.123.68–12.80
Total shots
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6514.3023.95safe5.72–13.5710.74–17.8716.46–31.44safer4.63–14.669.78–18.8314.41–33.49
Shots in box
19%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction5.928.6914.61safe2.97–8.866.01–11.378.98–20.23safer2.15–9.695.27–12.117.42–21.80
Blocked shots
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.055.53safe0.60–4.361.39–4.701.99–9.06safer0.05–4.910.90–5.190.96–10.10
Corners
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.825.229.04safe1.61–6.033.22–7.224.82–13.25safer1.03–6.612.68–7.753.72–14.36
Possession %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction43.4056.98safe36.61–50.1950.20–63.77safer34.94–51.8648.53–65.44
Passes
16%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction377495871safe310–444428–561738–1005safer292–462411–579702–1041
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction65.1274.56safe61.09–69.1570.24–78.88safer59.80–70.4468.93–80.19
Fouls
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6213.6328.25safe11.78–17.4510.69–16.5822.47–34.03safer11.02–18.219.94–17.3320.96–35.53
Offsides
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.983.68safe0.53–2.850.89–3.081.42–5.93safer0.23–3.150.60–3.370.83–6.52
Yellow cards
36%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.494.72safe1.19–3.291.36–3.622.55–6.90safer0.92–3.551.07–3.911.99–7.46
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
58%
16%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.302.335.63safe1.86–4.730.77–3.892.64–8.62safer1.48–5.120.35–4.311.82–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 1.47 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 25% 26% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.33 1.47–5.19 0.98–5.68 | 4.91 3.17–6.65 2.70–7.12 | 8.24 4.64–11.85 3.68–12.80 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 9.65 5.72–13.57 4.63–14.66 | 14.30 10.74–17.87 9.78–18.83 | 23.95 16.46–31.44 14.41–33.49 | 14% 80% |
| Shots in box | 5.92 2.97–8.86 2.15–9.69 | 8.69 6.01–11.37 5.27–12.11 | 14.61 8.98–20.23 7.42–21.80 | 19% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 2.48 0.60–4.36 0.05–4.91 | 3.05 1.39–4.70 0.90–5.19 | 5.53 1.99–9.06 0.96–10.10 | 32% 17% 51% |
| Corners | 3.82 1.61–6.03 1.03–6.61 | 5.22 3.22–7.22 2.68–7.75 | 9.04 4.82–13.25 3.72–14.36 | 26% 62% |
| Possession % | 43.40 36.61–50.19 34.94–51.86 | 56.98 50.20–63.77 48.53–65.44 | — | 19% 77% |
| Passes | 377 310–444 292–462 | 495 428–561 411–579 | 871 738–1005 702–1041 | 16% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.12 61.09–69.15 59.80–70.44 | 74.56 70.24–78.88 68.93–80.19 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 14.62 11.78–17.45 11.02–18.21 | 13.63 10.69–16.58 9.94–17.33 | 28.25 22.47–34.03 20.96–35.53 | 54% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.98 0.89–3.08 0.60–3.37 | 3.68 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.92–3.55 | 2.49 1.36–3.62 1.07–3.91 | 4.72 2.55–6.90 1.99–7.46 | 36% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.30 1.86–4.73 1.48–5.12 | 2.33 0.77–3.89 0.35–4.31 | 5.63 2.64–8.62 1.82–9.43 | 58% 16% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.