Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Espen Eskas
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.440.853.29safe1.47–3.410.00–1.711.47–5.12safer1.22–3.660.00–1.940.99–5.60actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
91%
homeawaytotalprediction7.712.9410.66safe5.85–9.581.20–4.697.05–14.26safer5.36–10.070.74–5.156.10–15.22actual8.001.009.00
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction22.998.3031.28safe19.06–26.914.73–11.8623.80–38.77safer17.97–28.003.77–12.8221.75–40.82actual32.001.0033.00
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction13.475.9919.47safe10.53–16.413.31–8.6813.84–25.09safer9.70–17.242.58–9.4112.28–26.66actual21.000.0021.00
Blocked shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction6.291.888.17safe4.41–8.180.23–3.534.64–11.71safer3.87–8.720.00–4.023.60–12.74actual7.000.007.00
Corners
92%
homeawaytotalprediction8.163.0411.20safe5.94–10.371.04–5.046.98–15.41safer5.37–10.950.50–5.575.87–16.52actual12.001.0013.00
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction68.0432.04safe61.24–74.8325.25–38.82safer59.58–76.4923.58–40.49actual74.0026.00
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction695300995safe628–762233–366861–1128safer610–780216–384825–1164actual7342661000
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction82.2067.51safe78.17–86.2363.18–71.83safer76.88–87.5261.88–73.14
Fouls
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.029.2318.25safe6.18–11.866.29–12.1812.47–24.03safer5.42–12.615.54–12.9210.96–25.54actual10.0011.0021.00
Offsides
52%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.393.43safe0.87–3.190.30–2.481.18–5.68safer0.57–3.490.02–2.770.59–6.27actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
24%
24%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.732.80safe0.03–2.120.60–2.850.63–4.97safer0.00–2.380.31–3.140.07–5.52actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
83%
homeawaytotalprediction2.165.207.36safe0.73–3.603.64–6.754.37–10.35safer0.34–3.993.22–7.183.56–11.17actual1.006.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.44 1.47–3.41 1.22–3.66 | 2.00 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.94 | 0.00 | 3.29 1.47–5.12 0.99–5.60 | 2.00 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 7.71 5.85–9.58 5.36–10.07 | 8.00 | 2.94 1.20–4.69 0.74–5.15 | 1.00 | 10.66 7.05–14.26 6.10–15.22 | 9.00 | 91% |
| Total shots | 22.99 19.06–26.91 17.97–28.00 | 32.00 | 8.30 4.73–11.86 3.77–12.82 | 1.00 | 31.28 23.80–38.77 21.75–40.82 | 33.00 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 13.47 10.53–16.41 9.70–17.24 | 21.00 | 5.99 3.31–8.68 2.58–9.41 | 0.00 | 19.47 13.84–25.09 12.28–26.66 | 21.00 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 6.29 4.41–8.18 3.87–8.72 | 7.00 | 1.88 0.23–3.53 0.00–4.02 | 0.00 | 8.17 4.64–11.71 3.60–12.74 | 7.00 | 92% |
| Corners | 8.16 5.94–10.37 5.37–10.95 | 12.00 | 3.04 1.04–5.04 0.50–5.57 | 1.00 | 11.20 6.98–15.41 5.87–16.52 | 13.00 | 92% |
| Possession % | 68.04 61.24–74.83 59.58–76.49 | 74.00 | 32.04 25.25–38.82 23.58–40.49 | 26.00 | — | — | 98% |
| Passes | 695 628–762 610–780 | 734 | 300 233–366 216–384 | 266 | 995 861–1128 825–1164 | 1000 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.20 78.17–86.23 76.88–87.52 | — | 67.51 63.18–71.83 61.88–73.14 | — | — | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 9.02 6.18–11.86 5.42–12.61 | 10.00 | 9.23 6.29–12.18 5.54–12.92 | 11.00 | 18.25 12.47–24.03 10.96–25.54 | 21.00 | 43% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.00 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.02–2.77 | 1.00 | 3.43 1.18–5.68 0.59–6.27 | 2.00 | 52% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.07 0.03–2.12 0.00–2.38 | 0.00 | 1.73 0.60–2.85 0.31–3.14 | 2.00 | 2.80 0.63–4.97 0.07–5.52 | 2.00 | 24% 24% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.16 0.73–3.60 0.34–3.99 | 1.00 | 5.20 3.64–6.75 3.22–7.18 | 6.00 | 7.36 4.37–10.35 3.56–11.17 | 7.00 | 83% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+