UEFA Nations League·League A - 3·
UEFA Nations League·League A - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Marco Guida
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.312.65safe0.37–2.310.46–2.170.83–4.47safer0.12–2.560.23–2.390.35–4.95actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.358.95safe2.74–6.472.60–6.095.34–12.55safer2.25–6.952.14–6.554.39–13.51actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1012.6025.70safe9.18–17.029.04–16.1618.21–33.19safer8.08–18.128.08–17.1216.16–35.24actual8.0019.0027.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.298.4216.71safe5.35–11.235.74–11.1011.09–22.33safer4.52–12.065.00–11.849.52–23.90actual8.0014.0022.00
Blocked shots
39%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.556.90safe1.46–5.231.90–5.213.37–10.44safer0.92–5.771.41–5.702.33–11.47actual2.009.0011.00
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.879.84safe2.75–7.182.87–6.875.62–14.05safer2.18–7.762.34–7.404.52–15.16actual6.008.0014.00
Possession %
24%
73%
homeawayprediction44.3755.59safe37.58–51.1648.81–62.38safer35.91–52.8347.14–64.05actual29.0071.00
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction407503911safe340–475437–570777–1045safer322–493419–587742–1080actual247619866
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction68.6776.29safe64.64–72.7071.97–80.61safer63.35–73.9970.66–81.92
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2312.4723.70safe8.40–14.079.53–15.4117.92–29.48safer7.64–14.838.78–16.1616.42–30.99actual6.007.0013.00
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.623.70safe0.92–3.240.53–2.711.45–5.95safer0.62–3.550.24–3.000.86–6.54actual3.004.007.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.414.44safe0.98–3.071.29–3.542.27–6.61safer0.72–3.341.00–3.831.72–7.16actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.296.43safe1.70–4.581.74–4.853.44–9.43safer1.32–4.961.31–5.272.63–10.24actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 2.00 | 1.31 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.39 | 2.00 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.35–4.95 | 4.00 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.47 2.25–6.95 | 4.00 | 4.35 2.60–6.09 2.14–6.55 | 5.00 | 8.95 5.34–12.55 4.39–13.51 | 9.00 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.10 9.18–17.02 8.08–18.12 | 8.00 | 12.60 9.04–16.16 8.08–17.12 | 19.00 | 25.70 18.21–33.19 16.16–35.24 | 27.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.35–11.23 4.52–12.06 | 8.00 | 8.42 5.74–11.10 5.00–11.84 | 14.00 | 16.71 11.09–22.33 9.52–23.90 | 22.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.46–5.23 0.92–5.77 | 2.00 | 3.55 1.90–5.21 1.41–5.70 | 9.00 | 6.90 3.37–10.44 2.33–11.47 | 11.00 | 39% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.75–7.18 2.18–7.76 | 6.00 | 4.87 2.87–6.87 2.34–7.40 | 8.00 | 9.84 5.62–14.05 4.52–15.16 | 14.00 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 44.37 37.58–51.16 35.91–52.83 | 29.00 | 55.59 48.81–62.38 47.14–64.05 | 71.00 | — | — | 24% 73% |
| Passes | 407 340–475 322–493 | 247 | 503 437–570 419–587 | 619 | 911 777–1045 742–1080 | 866 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.67 64.64–72.70 63.35–73.99 | — | 76.29 71.97–80.61 70.66–81.92 | — | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 11.23 8.40–14.07 7.64–14.83 | 6.00 | 12.47 9.53–15.41 8.78–16.16 | 7.00 | 23.70 17.92–29.48 16.42–30.99 | 13.00 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.92–3.24 0.62–3.55 | 3.00 | 1.62 0.53–2.71 0.24–3.00 | 4.00 | 3.70 1.45–5.95 0.86–6.54 | 7.00 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.07 0.72–3.34 | 2.00 | 2.41 1.29–3.54 1.00–3.83 | 1.00 | 4.44 2.27–6.61 1.72–7.16 | 3.00 | 33% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.70–4.58 1.32–4.96 | 3.00 | 3.29 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.27 | 2.00 | 6.43 3.44–9.43 2.63–10.24 | 5.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.