Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mikola Balakin
Goals
33%
24%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.663.08safe0.46–2.390.81–2.511.26–4.91safer0.21–2.640.58–2.740.78–5.39actual2.004.006.00
Shots on target
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.855.3510.19safe2.99–6.713.60–7.096.59–13.80safer2.50–7.203.14–7.555.63–14.75actual3.0010.0013.00
Total shots
30%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2115.5828.79safe9.28–17.1312.02–19.1421.30–36.28safer8.19–18.2211.06–20.1019.25–38.33actual12.0019.0031.00
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8410.5919.43safe5.90–11.787.91–13.2713.81–25.06safer5.07–12.617.17–14.0112.24–26.62actual5.0013.0018.00
Blocked shots
39%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.784.027.80safe1.89–5.662.37–5.674.26–11.33safer1.35–6.201.88–6.173.23–12.37actual3.005.008.00
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.125.1710.29safe2.90–7.333.17–7.176.07–14.50safer2.33–7.902.64–7.704.96–15.61actual4.007.0011.00
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.7355.24safe37.94–51.5248.45–62.02safer36.27–53.1946.78–63.69actual54.0046.00
Passes
23%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction441529970safe373–508463–596836–1103safer355–526445–613800–1139actual527449976
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction71.5077.12safe67.47–75.5372.80–81.44safer66.18–76.8271.49–82.75
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0012.0022.99safe8.16–13.839.05–14.9417.21–28.77safer7.40–14.598.30–15.6915.71–30.28actual6.0012.0018.00
Offsides
32%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.404.36safe0.80–3.121.31–3.492.11–6.61safer0.50–3.421.02–3.781.52–7.20actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.103.95safe0.81–2.900.97–3.221.78–6.12safer0.55–3.160.68–3.511.23–6.68actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.17safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.563.246.80safe2.12–5.001.68–4.793.81–9.79safer1.74–5.381.26–5.222.99–10.60actual6.001.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.21–2.64 | 2.00 | 1.66 0.81–2.51 0.58–2.74 | 4.00 | 3.08 1.26–4.91 0.78–5.39 | 6.00 | 33% 24% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.71 2.50–7.20 | 3.00 | 5.35 3.60–7.09 3.14–7.55 | 10.00 | 10.19 6.59–13.80 5.63–14.75 | 13.00 | 38% 50% |
| Total shots | 13.21 9.28–17.13 8.19–18.22 | 12.00 | 15.58 12.02–19.14 11.06–20.10 | 19.00 | 28.79 21.30–36.28 19.25–38.33 | 31.00 | 30% 64% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.90–11.78 5.07–12.61 | 5.00 | 10.59 7.91–13.27 7.17–14.01 | 13.00 | 19.43 13.81–25.06 12.24–26.62 | 18.00 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 1.89–5.66 1.35–6.20 | 3.00 | 4.02 2.37–5.67 1.88–6.17 | 5.00 | 7.80 4.26–11.33 3.23–12.37 | 8.00 | 39% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 4.00 | 5.17 3.17–7.17 2.64–7.70 | 7.00 | 10.29 6.07–14.50 4.96–15.61 | 11.00 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 44.73 37.94–51.52 36.27–53.19 | 54.00 | 55.24 48.45–62.02 46.78–63.69 | 46.00 | — | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 441 373–508 355–526 | 527 | 529 463–596 445–613 | 449 | 970 836–1103 800–1139 | 976 | 23% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.50 67.47–75.53 66.18–76.82 | — | 77.12 72.80–81.44 71.49–82.75 | — | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.16–13.83 7.40–14.59 | 6.00 | 12.00 9.05–14.94 8.30–15.69 | 12.00 | 22.99 17.21–28.77 15.71–30.28 | 18.00 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 2.00 | 2.40 1.31–3.49 1.02–3.78 | 2.00 | 4.36 2.11–6.61 1.52–7.20 | 4.00 | 32% 19% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.81–2.90 0.55–3.16 | 1.00 | 2.10 0.97–3.22 0.68–3.51 | 1.00 | 3.95 1.78–6.12 1.23–6.68 | 2.00 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.56 2.12–5.00 1.74–5.38 | 6.00 | 3.24 1.68–4.79 1.26–5.22 | 1.00 | 6.80 3.81–9.79 2.99–10.60 | 7.00 | 47% 15% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.